Natco Pharma Ltd
Natco Pharma Ltd
HealthcareKey Fundamentals
SmallcapPharmaceuticalsHealthcareInsights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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62 extracted metrics + investor summaries across FY11–FY26.
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Technical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
2- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 27.7% CAGR over last 5 years
Weaknesses
1- Tax rate seems low
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Natco Pharma is a nearly debt-free specialty pharmaceutical company with a market cap of ₹16,367 crore trading at a PE of 11.5x. The company delivered record FY25 revenue of ₹4,784 crore (up 16% YoY) and PAT of ₹1,883 crore (up 36% YoY), but management has guided for a ~20% revenue and ~30% profit decline in FY26 due to US market headwinds as Revlimid volume caps expire and competition intensifies.
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility and resilience through industry cycles
- Delivered 27.7% compounded profit CAGR over the last 5 years, demonstrating strong earnings compounding ability
- FY25 was a record year with consolidated revenue of ₹4,784 crore (up 16% YoY) and net profit of ₹1,883 crore (up 36% YoY)
- PE of 11.5x is significantly below the pharma sector average, offering valuation comfort if earnings stabilize
- FY25 EBITDA margin expanded to 53.3% from 45.5% in FY24, reflecting strong operating leverage
- Compounded sales CAGR of 15% over 3, 5, and 10-year periods indicates consistent top-line growth track record
- 3-year ROE of 23% and 5-year ROE of 19% indicate efficient capital deployment over extended periods
- Unlimited volume license for generic Revlimid (lenalidomide) in the US from January 2026 removes prior volume caps and could provide upside from a large addressable market
- Management guided for ~20% revenue decline and ~30% profit decline in FY26, signaling near-term earnings deterioration
- TTM sales declined 8% and TTM profit declined 25%, confirming the downward trajectory has already begun
- Q4 FY26 revenue fell 39.5% QoQ to ₹739 crore with operating margin collapsing to 10.45% from over 50% in FY25, showing severity of the US headwinds
- Stock has delivered negative 1-year CAGR of -3% and negative 5-year CAGR of -2%, indicating prolonged shareholder value erosion
- Heavy dependence on US generic market, particularly Revlimid, creates concentration risk as more competitors enter post-January 2026
- Dividend yield of only 0.55% provides minimal income cushion during periods of capital depreciation
- Apparently low tax rate raises questions about sustainability of reported earnings and potential future tax normalization
- Last year ROE dropped to 17% from a 3-year average of 23%, suggesting declining return efficiency as the Revlimid tailwind fades
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- GST demand order Rs 60L Jul 14
Natco Pharma received a GST order demanding Rs 60 lakh including tax, interest, and penalty for RCM discrepancies. Minor financial impact but signals compliance scrutiny.
- Olaparib tentative FDA approval Jul 21
Received tentative U.S. FDA approval for Olaparib tablets (100mg/150mg), bioequivalent to AstraZeneca's Lynparza with estimated U.S. sales of ~USD 1.4 billion for 12 months ending March 2026. Alembic Pharmaceuticals will handle U.S. distribution.
- Adcock Ingram stake raised to 49% Jul 15
Completed purchase of additional 13.25% stake in Adcock Ingram for ZAR 1.81 billion (~Rs 1,060 crore), raising total ownership to 49% and strengthening South African market presence.
TL;DR: Natco Pharma is executing well on its growth strategy with a significant FDA pipeline opportunity in Olaparib (USD 1.4B market) and deepening its South African footprint through the Adcock Ingram stake increase to 49%. The GST demand of Rs 60 lakh is negligible relative to company scale. The trend is positive with both U.S. generics pipeline and international expansion progressing, though Para IV litigation outcome for Olaparib remains a key variable to watch.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 898 | 1,140 | 1,031 | 759 | 1,068 | 1,363 | 1,371 | 475 | 1,221 | 1,329 | 1,363 | 647 | 739 |
| Expenses | 559 | 612 | 573 | 490 | 571 | 558 | 567 | 436 | 673 | 758 | 784 | 489 | 612 |
| Operating Profit | 339 | 528 | 458 | 268 | 497 | 805 | 804 | 39 | 548 | 571 | 579 | 159 | 128 |
| OPM % | 38% | 46% | 44% | 35% | 47% | 59% | 59% | 8% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 25% | 17% |
| Other Income | 29 | 20 | 29 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 64 | 176 | 66 | 62 | 100 | 58 | 78 |
| Interest | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| Depreciation | 41 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 56 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 98 | 58 | 52 | 46 | 50 |
| PBT | 324 | 500 | 440 | 256 | 478 | 804 | 818 | 164 | 506 | 572 | 614 | 161 | 144 |
| Tax % | 15% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 13% | -62% |
| Net Profit | 276 | 420 | 369 | 213 | 386 | 668 | 676 | 132 | 406 | 480 | 518 | 151 | 269 |
| EPS in Rs | 15.11 | 23.47 | 20.6 | 11.88 | 21.57 | 37.32 | 37.81 | 7.43 | 22.7 | 26.84 | 28.94 | 8.46 | 14.96 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 825 | 1,042 | 2,020 | 2,185 | 2,094 | 1,915 | 2,052 | 1,945 | 2,707 | 3,999 | 4,430 | 4,078 |
| Expenses | 615 | 777 | 1,337 | 1,256 | 1,300 | 1,332 | 1,446 | 1,681 | 1,772 | 2,245 | 2,234 | 2,642 |
| Operating Profit | 210 | 266 | 683 | 928 | 795 | 583 | 606 | 264 | 936 | 1,754 | 2,196 | 1,436 |
| OPM % | 25% | 25% | 34% | 42% | 38% | 30% | 30% | 14% | 35% | 44% | 50% | 35% |
| Other Income | 0 | 12 | 14 | 40 | 130 | 107 | 104 | 99 | 105 | 126 | 354 | 298 |
| Interest | 32 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 37 |
| Depreciation | 47 | 51 | 54 | 66 | 81 | 100 | 117 | 143 | 164 | 187 | 235 | 207 |
| PBT | 132 | 204 | 624 | 887 | 825 | 569 | 580 | 202 | 862 | 1,674 | 2,291 | 1,491 |
| Tax % | 1% | 24% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 8% |
| Net Profit | 130 | 156 | 485 | 695 | 642 | 458 | 442 | 170 | 715 | 1,388 | 1,883 | 1,418 |
| EPS in Rs | 8.1 | 9.02 | 27.88 | 37.74 | 35.24 | 25.31 | 24.18 | 9.31 | 39.18 | 77.51 | 105 | 79.2 |
| Div. Payout % | 12% | 14% | 24% | 22% | 18% | 27% | 22% | 48% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 6% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 33 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Reserves | 813 | 1,261 | 1,614 | 3,035 | 3,452 | 3,737 | 4,085 | 4,227 | 4,837 | 5,817 | 7,571 | 9,185 |
| Borrowings | 312 | 113 | 222 | 173 | 386 | 316 | 268 | 416 | 167 | 371 | 279 | 714 |
| Other Liabilities | 226 | 413 | 446 | 470 | 428 | 498 | 403 | 430 | 617 | 682 | 744 | 1,139 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,384 | 1,822 | 2,318 | 3,715 | 4,303 | 4,588 | 4,792 | 5,109 | 5,657 | 6,906 | 8,631 | 11,074 |
| Fixed Assets | 710 | 710 | 833 | 1,019 | 1,227 | 1,584 | 2,023 | 2,312 | 2,427 | 2,491 | 2,698 | 2,803 |
| CWIP | 129 | 212 | 336 | 480 | 638 | 518 | 223 | 130 | 64 | 137 | 225 | 294 |
| Investments | 2 | 22 | 32 | 76 | 169 | 112 | 304 | 308 | 392 | 539 | 474 | 3,127 |
| Other Assets | 543 | 878 | 1,116 | 2,140 | 2,270 | 2,373 | 2,242 | 2,360 | 2,774 | 3,739 | 5,234 | 4,850 |
| Total Assets | 1,384 | 1,822 | 2,318 | 3,715 | 4,303 | 4,588 | 4,792 | 5,109 | 5,657 | 6,906 | 8,631 | 11,074 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 93 | 112 | 346 | 464 | 669 | 417 | 299 | 46 | 849 | 1,212 | 1,697 | 1,768 |
| Investing | -120 | -176 | -299 | -1,116 | -611 | -175 | -107 | 4 | -465 | -1,026 | -1,436 | -2,082 |
| Financing | 29 | 154 | -48 | 651 | -51 | -251 | -186 | 35 | -363 | -247 | -211 | 298 |
| Net Cash Flow | 2 | 90 | -1 | -2 | 7 | -8 | 6 | 85 | 21 | -62 | 50 | -16 |
| Free Cash Flow | -25 | -44 | 66 | 57 | 225 | 81 | 92 | -142 | 674 | 855 | 1,300 | 1,379 |
| CFO/OP | 55 | 60 | 69 | 72 | 107 | 90 | 71 | 36 | 110 | 85 | 94 | 151 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 85 | 92 | 86 | 106 | 88 | 105 | 73 | 116 | 115 | 109 | 103 | 79 |
| Inventory Days | 331 | 482 | 213 | 389 | 545 | 534 | 570 | 496 | 432 | 357 | 405 | 480 |
| Days Payable | 189 | 372 | 160 | 239 | 224 | 244 | 104 | 105 | 153 | 120 | 145 | 216 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 228 | 202 | 138 | 257 | 410 | 395 | 539 | 507 | 394 | 345 | 362 | 343 |
| Working Capital Days | 25 | 97 | 71 | 215 | 207 | 295 | 246 | 256 | 198 | 151 | 151 | 163 |
| ROCE % | 17% | 18% | 39% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 18% | 30% | 33% | 17% |
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Company Information
NATCO Pharma Limited (NATCO) is a vertically integrated, research and development focused pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing, and marketing complex products for niche therapeutic areas. [1] NATCO has established its presence in all three business segments viz. finished dosage formulations (“FDF”), active pharmaceutical ingredients (“APIs”), Contract Manufacturing Business.[2]