Natco Pharma Ltd
Natco Pharma Ltd
HealthcareKey Fundamentals
SmallcapPharmaceuticalsHealthcareInsights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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62 extracted metrics + investor summaries across FY11–FY26.
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Technical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
2- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 27.7% CAGR over last 5 years
Weaknesses
1- Tax rate seems low
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Natco Pharma is a nearly debt-free specialty pharmaceutical company with a market cap of ~₹16,964 crore trading at a PE of ~12x. FY2026 consolidated revenue declined to ₹4,376 crore (down ~8% YoY) and net profit fell to ₹1,419 crore (down ~25% YoY), primarily due to lower lenalidomide contributions, while the underlying base business continues to grow in double digits.
- Nearly debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility and low interest burden, with debt-to-equity effectively negligible
- Strong long-term profit CAGR of ~28% over 5 years and ~25% over 10 years demonstrates consistent earnings compounding ability
- Attractive valuation at PE of ~12x against a 5-year profit CAGR of 28%, implying a PEG ratio well below 1
- 3-year ROE of 23% and 5-year ROE of 19% indicate efficient capital deployment above cost of equity
- Domestic base business grew from ~₹107 crore/quarter historically to ₹136 crore in Q1 FY2027, reflecting double-digit organic growth aided by semaglutide launch
- EBITDA margin improved to 30.9% in Q1 FY2027 despite revenue decline, showing strong cost discipline and operating leverage
- Day-1 launch of semaglutide injection in India on patent expiry (March 2026) opens a large GLP-1 opportunity in the domestic market
- Compounded sales growth of 15% over 3, 5, and 10 years demonstrates a durable revenue growth engine beyond any single product
- FY2026 net profit declined 25% YoY to ₹1,419 crore from ₹1,883 crore, signaling earnings have peaked from the lenalidomide supercycle
- Q1 FY2027 revenue fell 43% YoY to ₹794 crore as lenalidomide volume caps expired and generic competition intensified in the US
- TTM sales growth is -21% and TTM profit growth is -33%, indicating a sharp near-term earnings deterioration
- Stock CAGR of just 3% over 1 year and -1% over 5 years shows prolonged underperformance relative to broader indices
- Dividend yield of only 0.53% offers limited income support during the earnings transition period
- High concentration risk: a single product (lenalidomide) drove a disproportionate share of peak revenue, and its decline is not yet fully offset by new launches
- Tax rate appears unusually low, meaning any normalization of tax obligations could compress reported earnings further
- Last-year ROE declined to 17% from a 3-year average of 23%, suggesting return on equity is trending downward as the high-margin US product fades
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Revenue drops 43% YoY in Q1 Aug 14
Consolidated revenue fell 43% YoY to ₹794.4 crore in Q1FY27, with net profit declining 57% to ₹206.5 crore, driven by lower Lenalidomide sales.
- Olaparib tentative FDA approval Jul 21
Received tentative U.S. FDA approval for Olaparib tablets (100 mg/150 mg), bioequivalent to AstraZeneca's Lynparza with ~USD 1.4 billion in U.S. annual sales. Alembic Pharmaceuticals to distribute.
- ₹20 billion fund raise approved Aug 14
Board approved raising up to ₹20 billion through equity or other securities, subject to regulatory approvals.
- ₹1.50 interim dividend declared Aug 14
Declared ₹1.50 per share interim dividend for FY27 (75% on ₹2 face value), record date August 20 with payment from August 26.
- Investor meet in Mumbai Aug 16
Hosting investor meet on August 19 organized by Nuvama Wealth and ICICI Securities; no unpublished price-sensitive information to be shared.
- Q1FY27 earnings call scheduled Aug 11
Earnings call held August 14 at 17:30 IST to discuss unaudited Q1FY27 results for quarter ended June 30, 2026.
TL;DR: Natco Pharma faces a significant near-term earnings headwind with Q1FY27 revenue down 43% and profit down 57% due to declining Lenalidomide sales. However, the Olaparib tentative approval opens a large future revenue opportunity (~USD 1.4B U.S. market), and the ₹20 billion fund raise signals growth ambitions. The trend is deteriorating on current earnings but the pipeline and capital plans point to a potential recovery as new products launch.
Quarterly Results
| Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,140 | 1,031 | 759 | 1,068 | 1,363 | 1,371 | 475 | 1,221 | 1,329 | 1,363 | 647 | 739 | 735 |
| Expenses | 612 | 573 | 490 | 571 | 558 | 567 | 436 | 673 | 758 | 784 | 489 | 612 | 549 |
| Operating Profit | 528 | 458 | 268 | 497 | 805 | 804 | 39 | 548 | 571 | 579 | 159 | 128 | 186 |
| OPM % | 46% | 44% | 35% | 47% | 59% | 59% | 8% | 45% | 43% | 42% | 25% | 17% | 25% |
| Other Income | 20 | 29 | 37 | 42 | 48 | 64 | 176 | 66 | 62 | 100 | 58 | 78 | 59 |
| Interest | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Depreciation | 44 | 44 | 44 | 56 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 98 | 58 | 52 | 46 | 50 | 47 |
| PBT | 500 | 440 | 256 | 478 | 804 | 818 | 164 | 506 | 572 | 614 | 161 | 144 | 186 |
| Tax % | 16% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 13% | -62% | 34% |
| Net Profit | 420 | 369 | 213 | 386 | 668 | 676 | 132 | 406 | 480 | 518 | 151 | 269 | 206 |
| EPS in Rs | 23.47 | 20.6 | 11.88 | 21.57 | 37.32 | 37.81 | 7.43 | 22.7 | 26.84 | 28.94 | 8.46 | 14.96 | 11.53 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 825 | 1,042 | 2,020 | 2,185 | 2,094 | 1,915 | 2,052 | 1,945 | 2,707 | 3,999 | 4,430 | 4,078 | 3,485 |
| Expenses | 615 | 777 | 1,337 | 1,256 | 1,300 | 1,332 | 1,446 | 1,681 | 1,772 | 2,245 | 2,234 | 2,642 | 2,433 |
| Operating Profit | 210 | 266 | 683 | 928 | 795 | 583 | 606 | 264 | 936 | 1,754 | 2,196 | 1,436 | 1,052 |
| OPM % | 25% | 25% | 34% | 42% | 38% | 30% | 30% | 14% | 35% | 44% | 50% | 35% | 30% |
| Other Income | 0 | 12 | 14 | 40 | 130 | 107 | 104 | 99 | 105 | 126 | 354 | 298 | 295 |
| Interest | 32 | 23 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 37 | 46 |
| Depreciation | 47 | 51 | 54 | 66 | 81 | 100 | 117 | 143 | 164 | 187 | 235 | 207 | 196 |
| PBT | 132 | 204 | 624 | 887 | 825 | 569 | 580 | 202 | 862 | 1,674 | 2,291 | 1,491 | 1,104 |
| Tax % | 1% | 24% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 8% | — |
| Net Profit | 130 | 156 | 485 | 695 | 642 | 458 | 442 | 170 | 715 | 1,388 | 1,883 | 1,418 | 1,145 |
| EPS in Rs | 8.1 | 9.02 | 27.88 | 37.74 | 35.24 | 25.31 | 24.18 | 9.31 | 39.18 | 77.51 | 105 | 79.2 | 63.89 |
| Div. Payout % | 12% | 14% | 24% | 22% | 18% | 27% | 22% | 48% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 6% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 33 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Reserves | 813 | 1,261 | 1,614 | 3,035 | 3,452 | 3,737 | 4,085 | 4,227 | 4,837 | 5,817 | 7,571 | 9,185 |
| Borrowings | 312 | 113 | 222 | 173 | 386 | 316 | 268 | 416 | 167 | 371 | 279 | 714 |
| Other Liabilities | 226 | 413 | 446 | 470 | 428 | 498 | 403 | 430 | 617 | 682 | 744 | 1,139 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,384 | 1,822 | 2,318 | 3,715 | 4,303 | 4,588 | 4,792 | 5,109 | 5,657 | 6,906 | 8,631 | 11,074 |
| Fixed Assets | 710 | 710 | 833 | 1,019 | 1,227 | 1,584 | 2,023 | 2,312 | 2,427 | 2,491 | 2,698 | 2,803 |
| CWIP | 129 | 212 | 336 | 480 | 638 | 518 | 223 | 130 | 64 | 137 | 225 | 294 |
| Investments | 2 | 22 | 32 | 76 | 169 | 112 | 304 | 308 | 392 | 539 | 474 | 3,127 |
| Other Assets | 543 | 878 | 1,116 | 2,140 | 2,270 | 2,373 | 2,242 | 2,360 | 2,774 | 3,739 | 5,234 | 4,850 |
| Total Assets | 1,384 | 1,822 | 2,318 | 3,715 | 4,303 | 4,588 | 4,792 | 5,109 | 5,657 | 6,906 | 8,631 | 11,074 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 93 | 112 | 346 | 464 | 669 | 417 | 299 | 46 | 849 | 1,212 | 1,697 | 1,768 |
| Investing | -120 | -176 | -299 | -1,116 | -611 | -175 | -107 | 4 | -465 | -1,026 | -1,436 | -2,082 |
| Financing | 29 | 154 | -48 | 651 | -51 | -251 | -186 | 35 | -363 | -247 | -211 | 298 |
| Net Cash Flow | 2 | 90 | -1 | -2 | 7 | -8 | 6 | 85 | 21 | -62 | 50 | -16 |
| Free Cash Flow | -25 | -44 | 66 | 57 | 225 | 81 | 92 | -142 | 674 | 855 | 1,300 | 1,379 |
| CFO/OP | 55 | 60 | 69 | 72 | 107 | 90 | 71 | 36 | 110 | 85 | 94 | 151 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 85 | 92 | 86 | 106 | 88 | 105 | 73 | 116 | 115 | 109 | 103 | 79 |
| Inventory Days | 331 | 482 | 213 | 389 | 545 | 534 | 570 | 496 | 432 | 357 | 405 | 480 |
| Days Payable | 189 | 372 | 160 | 239 | 224 | 244 | 104 | 105 | 153 | 120 | 145 | 216 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 228 | 202 | 138 | 257 | 410 | 395 | 539 | 507 | 394 | 345 | 362 | 343 |
| Working Capital Days | 25 | 97 | 71 | 215 | 207 | 295 | 246 | 256 | 198 | 151 | 151 | 163 |
| ROCE % | 17% | 18% | 39% | 35% | 23% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 18% | 30% | 33% | 17% |
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Company Information
NATCO Pharma Limited (NATCO) is a vertically integrated, research and development focused pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing, and marketing complex products for niche therapeutic areas. [1] NATCO has established its presence in all three business segments viz. finished dosage formulations (“FDF”), active pharmaceutical ingredients (“APIs”), Contract Manufacturing Business.[2]