Mahanagar Gas Ltd
Mahanagar Gas Ltd
EnergyKey Fundamentals
MicrocapGas SupplierOil & GasTechnical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
2- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 28.8%
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Mahanagar Gas trades at an attractive PE of 14.6x with a debt-free balance sheet and consistent 19% ROE over 5 years, but TTM profit decline of -13% and negative 1-year stock CAGR of -11% signal near-term headwinds. With 70% analyst buy ratings, the risk-reward is balanced but warrants patience.
- Attractive valuation at PE of 14.6x, well below typical FMCG and consumer sector multiples, offering margin of safety
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet reduces financial risk and interest burden in a rising rate environment
- Consistent ROE of 19% over both 3-year and 5-year periods demonstrates strong capital efficiency
- Strong analyst consensus with 70% buy ratings (21 out of 30 analysts recommending buy)
- Robust 10-year compounded sales CAGR of 15% reflects structural demand growth for city gas distribution
- Healthy dividend payout ratio of 28.8% with current yield of 0.96% provides income support
- TTM sales growth of 19% indicates continued top-line momentum despite profit compression
- Price-to-book of 1.92x is reasonable for an asset-heavy utility with established infrastructure
- TTM compounded profit declined -13%, signaling margin compression likely from higher gas input costs
- Negative 1-year stock CAGR of -11% reflects sustained underperformance and weak sentiment
- Last year ROE dropped to 14% from 5-year average of 19%, a significant 500 basis point deterioration
- Modest 5-year stock CAGR of just 2% indicates prolonged period of poor shareholder returns
- 3-year compounded profit CAGR of only 2% versus 9% sales CAGR shows persistent margin erosion
- 10% of analysts (3 out of 30) have sell ratings, indicating some institutional skepticism
- Dividend yield of 0.96% is below fixed deposit rates, limiting appeal for income-seeking investors
- Market cap of Rs 12,153 crore is mid-cap territory, exposing stock to higher volatility in risk-off markets
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Severe margin compression Jun 04
Operating profit margin fell from 21.6% in FY25 to 17.6% in FY26, with Q4 FY26 OPM at 12.7% vs 20.1% in Q4 FY25. Broker expects further compression to ~16% in FY27 due to volatile gas costs from US-Iran war.
- Crude and LNG cost surge Jun 12
Brent crude surged to $102/bbl in 1QFY27 vs $69/bbl in FY26, spot LNG rose to $18/mmbtu vs $12/mmbtu, and rupee depreciated 11% YoY in 1QFY27, severely pressuring input costs.
- Subsidies suspended amid conflict May 26
MGL halted all customer support schemes including downstream piping cost absorption and monthly bill subsidies with immediate effect, citing the West Asia conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure.
- Stock down 25% in one year Jun 12
Stock closed at ₹1,062.20, down 13% over 3.5 months, 24.67% over 1 year, and 25.19% over 2 years amid sustained margin headwinds.
- Gross profit per SCM declining May 31
Gross profit per SCM dropped 25.1% from ₹17.80 in Q4 FY25 to ₹13.34 in Q4 FY26, with Q4 operating margins slipping to 8.71% from 13.27% in Q3.
- EV and regulatory competition risks May 31
Electric vehicle adoption threatens CNG's cost advantage over time, and PNGRB open access discussions could introduce new competitors in MGL's service area.
- Motilal Oswal buy, ₹1,390 target Jun 12
Motilal Oswal maintained BUY with ₹1,390 target (31% upside) based on 14x Dec 2027 P/E, expecting ~9% volume CAGR over FY26-28 and noting valuations at ~10.8x FY28E P/E near mean -1 S.D.
- CD Equisearch buy, ₹1,352 target Jun 04
CD Equisearch issued buy at ₹1,352 target based on 15x FY27 earnings. Q4FY26 volumes grew 11.4% YoY to 420.5 million scm with CNG volumes up 14.1%.
- Aggressive infra expansion in FY26 Jun 04
MGL added 861 km pipeline (total ~8,320 km) and 52 CNG stations (total 518) in FY26 with ₹1,060 crore capex, planning another ₹1,000 crore for FY27.
- CNG price hikes protect earnings May 31
Three successive CNG hikes totaling ₹5/kg since April 2026, with management guiding INR 2-3/kg more. CNG still offers 45% savings over petrol and 12% over diesel, limiting demand elasticity.
- D-PNG conversions accelerating Jun 12
D-PNG conversion momentum up 50% vs pre-war levels. Maharashtra government mandated PNG adoption where available, with MGL targeting 4-5 lakh new PNG customers.
- Demand resilient despite hikes May 31
CNG volumes grew 7.12% YoY in Q4 FY26 to 3.349 mmscmd despite cumulative ₹5/kg price increase, with management guiding 6-7% sustained CNG volume growth.
- CNG price hike ₹2/kg Mumbai May 30
MGL raised CNG prices by ₹2/kg in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, continuing upward revisions. Delhi saw four consecutive ₹2/kg hikes within two weeks.
- JM Financial conference attendance Jun 09
MGL management to attend JM Financial virtual conference on June 15, 2026. No unpublished price sensitive information to be shared.
- SVP Marketing retires May 31
Senior Vice President Marketing Rajesh Wagle retires on June 1, 2026 due to superannuation under Regulation 30.
TL;DR: MGL faces acute near-term margin pressure from the West Asia conflict driving crude to $102/bbl, LNG to $18/mmbtu, and an 11% rupee depreciation, compressing OPM from 21.6% to 17.6% in FY26 with further compression expected. However, volume growth remains resilient at 7-14% YoY, infrastructure expansion continues at pace, and multiple brokerages see 26-31% upside given valuations near historical lows at ~10.8x FY28E P/E. The key swing factor is whether cumulative ₹5/kg CNG price hikes plus further ₹2-3/kg increases can stabilize margins without denting demand growth — early signs suggest demand elasticity is low, positioning MGL for earnings recovery if geopolitical pressures ease.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,610 | 1,538 | 1,571 | 1,569 | 1,567 | 1,590 | 1,786 | 1,758 | 1,963 | 2,081 | 2,049 | 2,058 | 2,051 |
| Expenses | 1,221 | 1,017 | 1,092 | 1,120 | 1,173 | 1,171 | 1,373 | 1,443 | 1,568 | 1,581 | 1,711 | 1,706 | 1,791 |
| Operating Profit | 390 | 521 | 479 | 449 | 394 | 418 | 413 | 314 | 395 | 501 | 338 | 352 | 260 |
| OPM % | 24% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 18% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 13% |
| Other Income | 34 | 39 | 44 | 48 | 45 | 40 | 47 | 46 | 42 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Interest | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Depreciation | 64 | 62 | 66 | 68 | 78 | 72 | 84 | 79 | 95 | 96 | 104 | 103 | 106 |
| PBT | 357 | 496 | 454 | 426 | 357 | 384 | 373 | 278 | 338 | 432 | 258 | 272 | 178 |
| Tax % | 25% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 19% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 26% |
| Net Profit | 269 | 368 | 338 | 317 | 265 | 285 | 287 | 225 | 242 | 320 | 193 | 202 | 132 |
| EPS in Rs | 27.21 | 37.3 | 34.27 | 32.11 | 26.83 | 28.81 | 29.03 | 22.82 | 24.53 | 32.35 | 19.58 | 20.45 | 13.36 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,095 | 2,078 | 2,034 | 2,233 | 2,791 | 2,972 | 2,153 | 3,560 | 6,299 | 6,245 | 6,924 | 8,240 |
| Expenses | 1,605 | 1,569 | 1,390 | 1,453 | 1,906 | 1,919 | 1,219 | 2,636 | 5,115 | 4,402 | 5,414 | 6,789 |
| Operating Profit | 490 | 509 | 644 | 780 | 885 | 1,053 | 934 | 924 | 1,184 | 1,843 | 1,510 | 1,451 |
| OPM % | 23% | 24% | 32% | 35% | 32% | 35% | 43% | 26% | 19% | 30% | 22% | 18% |
| Other Income | 41 | 47 | 53 | 58 | 78 | 99 | 81 | 86 | 112 | 175 | 184 | 119 |
| Interest | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 21 |
| Depreciation | 80 | 83 | 95 | 111 | 126 | 162 | 174 | 196 | 231 | 274 | 306 | 409 |
| PBT | 449 | 472 | 601 | 727 | 837 | 984 | 834 | 806 | 1,056 | 1,733 | 1,374 | 1,141 |
| Tax % | 33% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 35% | 19% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% |
| Net Profit | 301 | 311 | 393 | 478 | 546 | 794 | 620 | 597 | 790 | 1,289 | 1,045 | 847 |
| EPS in Rs | 33.69 | 34.8 | 39.83 | 48.38 | 55.32 | 80.33 | 62.72 | 60.43 | 79.98 | 131 | 106 | 85.73 |
| Div. Payout % | 52% | 50% | 48% | 39% | 36% | 44% | 37% | 41% | 20% | 23% | 28% | 35% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 89 | 89 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Reserves | 1,318 | 1,639 | 1,741 | 1,997 | 2,300 | 2,854 | 3,134 | 3,499 | 4,035 | 5,044 | 5,791 | 6,335 |
| Borrowings | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 74 | 103 | 115 | 139 | 164 | 219 |
| Other Liabilities | 743 | 637 | 782 | 914 | 1,042 | 1,109 | 1,295 | 1,534 | 1,783 | 1,944 | 2,150 | 2,312 |
| Total Liabilities | 2,166 | 2,370 | 2,624 | 3,010 | 3,441 | 4,128 | 4,601 | 5,234 | 6,032 | 7,226 | 8,204 | 8,965 |
| Fixed Assets | 1,064 | 1,129 | 1,305 | 1,532 | 1,763 | 2,049 | 2,169 | 2,614 | 3,026 | 3,543 | 4,104 | 5,373 |
| CWIP | 380 | 429 | 412 | 357 | 370 | 487 | 560 | 616 | 709 | 774 | 974 | 1,259 |
| Investments | 371 | 393 | 467 | 688 | 654 | 1,121 | 1,025 | 1,088 | 1,310 | 1,636 | 1,740 | 1,169 |
| Other Assets | 350 | 419 | 441 | 434 | 654 | 471 | 847 | 916 | 988 | 1,273 | 1,385 | 1,163 |
| Total Assets | 2,166 | 2,370 | 2,624 | 3,010 | 3,441 | 4,128 | 4,601 | 5,234 | 6,032 | 7,226 | 8,204 | 8,965 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 427 | 419 | 532 | 652 | 685 | 985 | 806 | 904 | 969 | 1,563 | 1,368 | 1,147 |
| Investing | -261 | -222 | -263 | -419 | -439 | -755 | -444 | -539 | -649 | -1,267 | -1,001 | -874 |
| Financing | -176 | -191 | -284 | -226 | -235 | -242 | -349 | -310 | -285 | -312 | -336 | -368 |
| Net Cash Flow | -10 | 5 | -15 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 13 | 54 | 35 | -15 | 32 | -95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 229 | 204 | 278 | 383 | 322 | 559 | 466 | 256 | 257 | 793 | 300 | 87 |
| CFO/OP | 116 | 112 | 112 | 113 | 108 | 116 | 108 | 121 | 104 | 108 | 108 | 97 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 17 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Inventory Days | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Days Payable | 32 | 33 | 43 | 39 | 40 | 35 | 76 | 48 | 26 | 34 | 34 | 31 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -10 | -12 | -18 | -16 | -22 | -21 | -44 | -24 | -7 | -13 | -12 | -6 |
| Working Capital Days | -80 | -59 | -79 | -86 | -78 | -97 | -152 | -106 | -63 | -72 | -70 | -11 |
| ROCE % | 33% | 30% | 34% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 34% | 23% | 18% |
Documents
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Company Information
Mahanagar Gas Ltd is engaged in the business of City gas distribution (CGD), presently supplying natural gas in the city of Mumbai including adjoining areas and the Raigad District in the state of Maharashtra.[1]