Mahanagar Gas Ltd
Mahanagar Gas Ltd
Oil & GasKey Fundamentals
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BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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47 extracted metrics + investor summaries across FY15–FY26.
Tapetide Score
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Technical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
2- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 28.8%
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Mahanagar Gas Ltd trades at a PE of 13.6x with a market cap of ~₹11,397 crore, delivering 19% ROE over three and five years but seeing last-year ROE compress to 14% amid rising input costs from APM gas allocation cuts. The company is virtually debt-free and grew volumes ~12-13% in FY25, but TTM profit declined 13% and the stock has fallen 23% over the past year as margin headwinds intensified.
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility and insulation from rising interest rate environments
- Attractive valuation at 13.6x PE and 1.78x PB, well below historical averages for a monopoly-like CGD franchise in Mumbai Metropolitan Region
- Consistent ROE of 19% over 3-year and 5-year periods demonstrates durable capital efficiency
- Strong volume growth of ~12-13% in FY25 driven by CNG vehicle additions (1.25 million vehicles served) and expansion to 485 CNG stations and 8,062 km pipeline network
- Aggressive infrastructure expansion — connected 342,157 new households in FY25 and added 52 CNG stations, expanding total connectivity to over 3 million PNG households
- Healthy dividend payout of 28.8% with 1.03% yield provides income support while stock trades near multi-year lows
- Compounded sales CAGR of 15% over 10 years and 19% TTM revenue growth indicate continued top-line momentum
- EV penetration headwinds in mass-market segment remain limited — CNG adoption continues to surge particularly in autorickshaws, taxis, and commercial vehicles where EV alternatives are less viable
- APM gas allocation cut by 18% in April 2025 (from 51% to 40%), replaced by costlier New Well Gas priced at 12.5% of crude basket vs APM at 10%, directly compressing margins
- TTM profit declined 13% and Q3 FY25 net profit fell 30% YoY to ₹221 crore as higher gas procurement costs eroded profitability
- Management projects 7-10% of APM gas to shift to costlier NWG each year, creating a structural and recurring margin headwind
- Stock has delivered -23% returns over 1 year and 0% CAGR over 5 years, signaling sustained investor de-rating despite volume growth
- EBITDA margin compressed to 25.1% in Q4 FY24 from 28.6% YoY, and further to 20.3% in Q4 FY25, showing accelerating margin erosion
- Last-year ROE dropped to 14% from 19% historical average, indicating declining return profile under current cost structure
- Growing long-term EV competition threat particularly from electric autorickshaws and buses in Mumbai, MGL's core CNG demand segments
- Single-pipeline supply vulnerability exposed in November 2025 when GAIL pipeline damage shut 164 of 389 CNG stations across Mumbai, Thane, and Navi Mumbai
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Brent crude surge hurts margins Jun 12
Brent crude jumped to USD 102/bbl in 1QFY27 from USD 69/bbl in FY26, while spot LNG rose to USD 18/mmbtu from USD 12/mmbtu, significantly contracting margins.
- Rupee depreciation adds cost pressure Jun 12
Rupee depreciated 11% YoY in 1QFY27, compounding input cost pressures from elevated gas prices.
- Stock down 25% over two years Jun 12
MGL has declined 24.67% over 1 year and 25.19% over 2 years, with a 13% correction in the last 3.5 months due to margin headwinds.
- Motilal Oswal maintains Buy, 31% upside Jun 12
Motilal Oswal reiterated BUY with a target price of Rs 1,390 (14x Dec 2027 P/E), implying 31% upside from Rs 1,062.20 current price.
- 9% volume CAGR expected FY26-28 Jun 12
Brokerage expects ~9% volume CAGR over FY26-28, supported by high single-digit CNG demand growth, vehicle additions, and bus recovery.
- CNG price hikes to cushion margins Jun 12
Rs 5/kg CNG price hikes already taken post-war with further Rs 2-3/kg hikes expected, along with stronger I&C PNG realisations to support earnings.
- Valuations near -1 SD, re-rating scope Jun 12
At ~10.8x FY28E P/E (near mean minus 1 standard deviation), valuations appear attractive with scope for re-rating as margin pressures ease.
- D-PNG conversions up 50% Jun 12
Domestic PNG conversion momentum has improved 50% versus pre-war levels, with easing execution bottlenecks supporting growth.
- Two new VPs appointed July 1 Jun 30
Mahanagar Gas appointed Sanket Dhotre and Mukesh Panhotra as Vice Presidents effective July 1, 2026, replacing superannuated Chakrapani Atmakur.
- JM Financial conference attendance Jun 9
MGL management to attend a virtual JM Financial conference on June 15, 2026; no unpublished price sensitive information to be shared.
TL;DR: MGL faces near-term margin pressure from surging crude/LNG prices and rupee depreciation, which has driven a significant stock correction. However, volume growth remains robust at ~9% CAGR with CNG price hikes and improving D-PNG conversions providing earnings support. Valuations at ~10.8x FY28E P/E are historically attractive. The trend appears to be bottoming out, with margin recovery contingent on input cost stabilisation and further price hikes flowing through.
Quarterly Results
| Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,538 | 1,571 | 1,569 | 1,567 | 1,590 | 1,786 | 1,758 | 1,963 | 2,081 | 2,049 | 2,058 | 2,051 | 2,372 |
| Expenses | 1,017 | 1,092 | 1,120 | 1,173 | 1,171 | 1,373 | 1,443 | 1,568 | 1,581 | 1,711 | 1,706 | 1,791 | 2,029 |
| Operating Profit | 521 | 479 | 449 | 394 | 418 | 413 | 314 | 395 | 501 | 338 | 352 | 260 | 343 |
| OPM % | 34% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 18% | 20% | 24% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 14% |
| Other Income | 39 | 44 | 48 | 45 | 40 | 47 | 46 | 42 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 |
| Interest | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Depreciation | 62 | 66 | 68 | 78 | 72 | 84 | 79 | 95 | 96 | 104 | 103 | 106 | 109 |
| PBT | 496 | 454 | 426 | 357 | 384 | 373 | 278 | 338 | 432 | 258 | 272 | 178 | 259 |
| Tax % | 26% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 19% | 28% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 368 | 338 | 317 | 265 | 285 | 287 | 225 | 242 | 320 | 193 | 202 | 132 | 194 |
| EPS in Rs | 37.3 | 34.27 | 32.11 | 26.83 | 28.81 | 29.03 | 22.82 | 24.53 | 32.35 | 19.58 | 20.45 | 13.36 | 19.61 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,095 | 2,078 | 2,034 | 2,233 | 2,791 | 2,972 | 2,153 | 3,560 | 6,299 | 6,245 | 7,261 | 8,240 | 8,531 |
| Expenses | 1,605 | 1,569 | 1,390 | 1,453 | 1,906 | 1,919 | 1,219 | 2,636 | 5,115 | 4,402 | 5,691 | 6,789 | 7,237 |
| Operating Profit | 490 | 509 | 644 | 780 | 885 | 1,053 | 934 | 924 | 1,184 | 1,843 | 1,570 | 1,451 | 1,293 |
| OPM % | 23% | 24% | 32% | 35% | 32% | 35% | 43% | 26% | 19% | 30% | 22% | 18% | 15% |
| Other Income | 41 | 47 | 53 | 58 | 78 | 99 | 81 | 86 | 112 | 175 | 166 | 119 | 118 |
| Interest | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 22 |
| Depreciation | 80 | 83 | 95 | 111 | 126 | 162 | 174 | 196 | 231 | 274 | 352 | 409 | 422 |
| PBT | 449 | 472 | 601 | 727 | 837 | 984 | 834 | 806 | 1,056 | 1,733 | 1,371 | 1,141 | 967 |
| Tax % | 33% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 35% | 19% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | — |
| Net Profit | 301 | 311 | 393 | 478 | 546 | 794 | 620 | 597 | 790 | 1,289 | 1,041 | 847 | 721 |
| EPS in Rs | 33.69 | 34.8 | 39.83 | 48.38 | 55.32 | 80.33 | 62.72 | 60.43 | 79.98 | 131 | 105 | 85.73 | 73 |
| Div. Payout % | 52% | 50% | 48% | 39% | 36% | 44% | 37% | 41% | 20% | 23% | 28% | 35% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 89 | 89 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Reserves | 1,318 | 1,639 | 1,741 | 1,997 | 2,300 | 2,854 | 3,134 | 3,499 | 4,035 | 5,044 | 5,780 | 6,335 |
| Borrowings | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 74 | 103 | 115 | 139 | 198 | 219 |
| Other Liabilities | 743 | 637 | 782 | 914 | 1,042 | 1,109 | 1,295 | 1,534 | 1,783 | 1,944 | 2,208 | 2,312 |
| Total Liabilities | 2,166 | 2,370 | 2,624 | 3,010 | 3,441 | 4,128 | 4,601 | 5,234 | 6,032 | 7,226 | 8,284 | 8,965 |
| Fixed Assets | 1,064 | 1,129 | 1,305 | 1,532 | 1,763 | 2,049 | 2,169 | 2,614 | 3,026 | 3,543 | 4,844 | 5,373 |
| CWIP | 380 | 429 | 412 | 357 | 370 | 487 | 560 | 616 | 709 | 774 | 1,062 | 1,259 |
| Investments | 371 | 393 | 467 | 688 | 654 | 1,121 | 1,025 | 1,088 | 1,310 | 1,636 | 1,178 | 1,169 |
| Other Assets | 350 | 419 | 441 | 434 | 654 | 471 | 847 | 916 | 988 | 1,273 | 1,200 | 1,163 |
| Total Assets | 2,166 | 2,370 | 2,624 | 3,010 | 3,441 | 4,128 | 4,601 | 5,234 | 6,032 | 7,226 | 8,284 | 8,965 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 427 | 419 | 532 | 652 | 685 | 985 | 806 | 904 | 969 | 1,563 | 1,420 | 1,147 |
| Investing | -261 | -222 | -263 | -419 | -439 | -755 | -444 | -539 | -649 | -1,267 | -1,056 | -874 |
| Financing | -176 | -191 | -284 | -226 | -235 | -242 | -349 | -310 | -285 | -312 | -341 | -368 |
| Net Cash Flow | -10 | 5 | -15 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 13 | 54 | 35 | -15 | 22 | -95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 229 | 204 | 278 | 383 | 322 | 559 | 466 | 256 | 257 | 793 | 249 | 87 |
| CFO/OP | 116 | 112 | 112 | 113 | 108 | 116 | 108 | 121 | 104 | 108 | 108 | 97 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 17 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 20 |
| Inventory Days | 5 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Days Payable | 32 | 33 | 43 | 39 | 40 | 35 | 76 | 48 | 26 | 34 | 34 | 31 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | -10 | -12 | -18 | -16 | -22 | -21 | -44 | -24 | -7 | -13 | -11 | -6 |
| Working Capital Days | -80 | -59 | -79 | -86 | -78 | -97 | -152 | -106 | -63 | -72 | -67 | -56 |
| ROCE % | 33% | 30% | 34% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 34% | 23% | 17% |
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Company Information
Mahanagar Gas Ltd is engaged in the business of City gas distribution (CGD), presently supplying natural gas in the city of Mumbai including adjoining areas and the Raigad District in the state of Maharashtra.[1]