Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd
Financial Services F&OThe MCX) commenced operation in Nov,03 is India’s first listed, national-level, electronic exchange, and India’s leading commodity derivatives exchange which offers the benefits of fair price discovery and price risk management to the Indian commodity market ecosystem. The Exchange operates under SEBI. [1]
MCX trades at a premium PE of 54x, but its monopoly position in Indian commodity derivatives, 138% TTM profit growth, and debt-free balance sheet justify a BUY with 83% analyst consensus. The 56% ROE last year and 107% TTM sales growth reflect a structural shift in volumes post successful technology migration.
Key Fundamentals
MidcapExchangeCapital MarketsTechnical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
6- Company is almost debt free.
- Company is expected to give good quarter
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 48.7% CAGR over last 5 years
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 36.4%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 29.8%
- Company's median sales growth is 24.0% of last 10 years
Weaknesses
1- Stock is trading at 25.4 times its book value
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
MCX trades at a premium PE of 54x, but its monopoly position in Indian commodity derivatives, 138% TTM profit growth, and debt-free balance sheet justify a BUY with 83% analyst consensus. The 56% ROE last year and 107% TTM sales growth reflect a structural shift in volumes post successful technology migration.
- Exceptional TTM profit growth of 138% demonstrates strong operating leverage as volumes scale on the new technology platform
- Revenue CAGR of 65% over 3 years and 107% TTM sales growth indicate accelerating topline momentum
- Last year ROE of 56% is best-in-class for any exchange business globally, reflecting capital-light model efficiency
- Company is virtually debt-free, giving it financial flexibility to invest in new product segments and technology
- 83% analyst buy rating with zero sell recommendations from 12 covering analysts signals strong institutional conviction
- 5-year profit CAGR of 49% with 3-year ROE averaging 36% shows consistency beyond just one strong year
- Stock CAGR of 105% over 3 years reflects market re-rating of MCX as a monopoly exchange with secular growth tailwinds
- Healthy dividend payout of 29.8% provides income return alongside capital appreciation, with 1.06% current yield
- PE ratio of 54x is expensive even for a high-growth exchange, leaving limited margin of safety if growth decelerates
- Price-to-book of 25.1x is extremely elevated and prices in years of future growth, making valuation vulnerable to any earnings miss
- Market cap of Rs 71,191 Cr implies the market expects sustained 30%+ earnings growth for several years which may be difficult to maintain after 138% TTM surge
- 10-year sales CAGR of only 26% versus recent 107% TTM growth suggests current momentum may be cyclical rather than structural
- Monopoly status could attract regulatory intervention on transaction charges, capping revenue growth potential
- 5-year stock CAGR of 56% versus 3-year CAGR of 105% shows much of the re-rating is recent and could mean-revert
- 10-year ROE of only 20% versus last year's 56% highlights that current profitability levels may not be sustainable long-term
- Single-product concentration in commodity derivatives exposes MCX to regulatory or sentiment shifts in commodity markets
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- UBS downgrades to Neutral May 29
UBS downgraded MCX from Buy to Neutral on May 29, citing peak earnings momentum and stretched valuation at ~50x forward earnings, ~10% above historical average.
- Volume normalization in Q1FY27 May 29
Q1FY27 volumes have normalized from elevated Q4FY26 levels as extraordinary commodity volatility moderates, raising concerns about earnings sustainability.
- Stock corrects 4.45% post-rally May 29
MCX fell 4.45% to ₹3,159.80 after a 44% YTD rally, as market transitions from pricing exceptional to sustainable performance.
- FY26 revenue surges 107% YoY May 29
MCX revenue from operations surged 107% to ₹2,302 crore in FY26, with net profit more than doubling to ₹1,332 crore. Q4FY26 revenue hit ₹889 crore (up 205% YoY) with profit at ₹530 crore (up 291% YoY).
- Dominant 97-99% market share May 29
MCX commands 97-99% market share in bullion, base metals, and energy with ROE at 34.33%, EBITDA margins at 73%, and zero debt. 9 of 13 analysts maintain Buy ratings with zero Sell ratings.
- Client base grows 60% to 21L May 29
Retail client base grew from 13 lakh to 21 lakh in FY26, a 60% jump, with ADT growing 2.5x to approximately ₹5.4 trillion per day.
- MCX Coal Exchange incorporated Jun 12
MCX incorporated MCX Coal Exchange of India Limited on June 11, 2026 as a wholly owned subsidiary, following SEBI approval for a coal spot exchange.
- Silver 100 futures launched Jun 1
MCX launched Silver 100 futures to expand its bullion portfolio, enabling hedging for jewelers and retail investors.
- Two Executive Directors appointed May 27
SEBI approved Sanjay Rajpal and Manoj Jain as Executive Directors for five-year terms, strengthening MCX's leadership team.
- Heavy analyst meeting schedule Jun 23
MCX scheduled 10+ one-on-one analyst meetings between June 1-30 with firms including GIC, William Blair, Kotak MF, Jefferies, Hill Fort Capital, and Axis Max Life Insurance.
- Public Interest Director appointed May 28
MCX appointed former SEBI Whole Time Member Santosh Kumar Mohanty as Public Interest Director for a three-year term effective May 28, 2026.
- Holiday split trading schedule May 27
MCX followed split schedule on May 28 for Bakri Eid, closing morning session but resuming evening trade from 5:00 PM to 11:30/11:55 PM.
TL;DR: MCX delivered a transformative FY26 with 107% revenue growth, 73% EBITDA margins, and near-monopoly market share, but the stock faces a valuation reality check after a 44% rally and UBS's downgrade citing peak earnings. The structural growth story remains intact with product expansion (coal exchange, Silver 100 futures) and heavy institutional interest evident from numerous analyst meetings. The key risk is whether Q4FY26's extraordinary volumes represent a cyclical peak or new baseline — Q1FY27 results will be the critical signal for direction.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 134 | 146 | 165 | 192 | 181 | 234 | 286 | 301 | 291 | 373 | 374 | 666 | 889 |
| Expenses | 134 | 136 | 195 | 212 | 79 | 102 | 106 | 108 | 131 | 132 | 132 | 172 | 224 |
| Operating Profit | 0 | 9 | -30 | -21 | 102 | 133 | 179 | 193 | 160 | 241 | 242 | 494 | 665 |
| OPM % | 0% | 6% | -18% | -11% | 56% | 57% | 63% | 64% | 55% | 65% | 65% | 74% | 75% |
| Other Income | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 26 | 24 | 30 | 33 | 27 | 31 | 36 |
| Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation | 6 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 22 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 19 |
| PBT | 14 | 25 | -17 | -14 | 108 | 138 | 191 | 202 | 168 | 256 | 249 | 503 | 682 |
| Tax % | 61% | 23% | 9% | -63% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 20% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 22% |
| Net Profit | 5 | 20 | -19 | -5 | 88 | 111 | 154 | 160 | 135 | 203 | 197 | 401 | 530 |
| EPS in Rs | 0.21 | 0.77 | -0.75 | -0.21 | 3.45 | 4.35 | 6.02 | 6.28 | 5.31 | 7.97 | 7.74 | 15.73 | 20.78 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 222 | 235 | 259 | 260 | 300 | 398 | 391 | 367 | 514 | 684 | 1,113 | 2,302 |
| Expenses | 135 | 160 | 180 | 184 | 206 | 219 | 205 | 206 | 369 | 621 | 447 | 660 |
| Operating Profit | 88 | 75 | 80 | 76 | 94 | 178 | 185 | 161 | 145 | 63 | 665 | 1,642 |
| OPM % | 39% | 32% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 28% | 9% | 60% | 71% |
| Other Income | 110 | 111 | 117 | 88 | 75 | 105 | 104 | 46 | 68 | 75 | 98 | 127 |
| Interest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Depreciation | 26 | 25 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 36 | 64 | 78 |
| PBT | 170 | 162 | 178 | 147 | 154 | 265 | 267 | 184 | 191 | 102 | 699 | 1,690 |
| Tax % | 26% | 29% | 29% | 26% | 5% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 22% | 18% | 20% | 21% |
| Net Profit | 126 | 115 | 127 | 108 | 146 | 236 | 225 | 143 | 149 | 83 | 560 | 1,332 |
| EPS in Rs | 4.93 | 4.5 | 4.96 | 4.25 | 5.73 | 9.27 | 8.83 | 5.63 | 5.84 | 3.26 | 21.96 | 52.22 |
| Div. Payout % | 41% | 29% | 60% | 80% | 70% | 65% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 47% | 27% | 15% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Reserves | 1,154 | 1,242 | 1,311 | 1,329 | 1,200 | 1,308 | 1,367 | 1,367 | 1,428 | 1,327 | 1,833 | 2,797 |
| Borrowings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Other Liabilities | 622 | 568 | 507 | 586 | 825 | 1,375 | 1,083 | 1,382 | 1,542 | 2,029 | 2,440 | 4,648 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,827 | 1,862 | 1,869 | 1,966 | 2,075 | 2,735 | 2,503 | 2,801 | 3,023 | 3,409 | 4,325 | 7,501 |
| Fixed Assets | 143 | 137 | 152 | 156 | 158 | 158 | 159 | 156 | 150 | 379 | 412 | 419 |
| CWIP | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 95 | 169 | 16 | 18 | 28 |
| Investments | 1,295 | 1,114 | 1,198 | 1,322 | 1,066 | 1,256 | 1,205 | 1,157 | 1,047 | 914 | 1,401 | 2,949 |
| Other Assets | 387 | 607 | 519 | 482 | 832 | 1,296 | 1,112 | 1,392 | 1,658 | 2,100 | 2,494 | 4,104 |
| Total Assets | 1,827 | 1,862 | 1,869 | 1,966 | 2,075 | 2,735 | 2,503 | 2,801 | 3,023 | 3,409 | 4,325 | 7,501 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 70 | 78 | -32 | 99 | 258 | 449 | -184 | 391 | 141 | 442 | 950 | 3,035 |
| Investing | -68 | -30 | 55 | 36 | -93 | -27 | -39 | -142 | -8 | -346 | -751 | -2,399 |
| Financing | -19 | -61 | -40 | -92 | -105 | -123 | -154 | -142 | -89 | -98 | -40 | -154 |
| Net Cash Flow | -18 | -14 | -17 | 43 | 61 | 299 | -377 | 107 | 44 | -2 | 159 | 481 |
| Free Cash Flow | 62 | 57 | -59 | 73 | 231 | 422 | -206 | 310 | 70 | 299 | 854 | 2,962 |
| CFO/OP | 126 | 177 | 24 | 170 | 306 | 281 | -74 | 263 | 132 | 786 | 149 | 202 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 17 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 9 | 10 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 17 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 9 | 10 |
| Working Capital Days | -522 | -446 | -287 | -404 | -429 | -761 | -424 | -654 | -463 | -540 | -390 | -247 |
| ROCE % | 10% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 7% | 43% | 71% |
Documents
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Company Information
The MCX) commenced operation in Nov,03 is India’s first listed, national-level, electronic exchange, and India’s leading commodity derivatives exchange which offers the benefits of fair price discovery and price risk management to the Indian commodity market ecosystem. The Exchange operates under SEBI. [1]