ITC Ltd
ITC Ltd
Fast Moving Consumer Goods F&OEstablished in 1910, ITC is the largest cigarette manufacturer and seller in the country. ITC operates in four business segments at present — FMCG Cigarettes, FMCG Others, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. [1]
ITC trades at a reasonable PE of 17.4x with an attractive 4.98% dividend yield and debt-free balance sheet, but a sharp -40% TTM profit decline and -30% one-year stock CAGR signal near-term headwinds. The stock suits income-oriented investors but lacks a clear growth catalyst to justify aggressive accumulation.
Key Fundamentals
LargecapDiversified FMCGFMCGTechnical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
4- Company is almost debt free.
- Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 4.99%.
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.3%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 74.5%
Weaknesses
2- The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.87% over past five years.
- Working capital days have increased from 75.7 days to 144 days
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
ITC trades at a reasonable PE of 17.4x with an attractive 4.98% dividend yield and debt-free balance sheet, but a sharp -40% TTM profit decline and -30% one-year stock CAGR signal near-term headwinds. The stock suits income-oriented investors but lacks a clear growth catalyst to justify aggressive accumulation.
- Virtually debt-free balance sheet provides exceptional financial resilience and flexibility for future capital allocation
- Dividend yield of 4.98% is among the highest in Indian large-caps, supported by a consistent 74.5% payout ratio
- 3-year ROE of 35% demonstrates superior capital efficiency well above the FMCG sector median of ~20-25%
- PE of 17.4x is attractive relative to FMCG peers like HUL (55x+) and Nestle India (60x+), offering a significant valuation discount
- Market cap of Rs 3.65 lakh crore provides institutional-grade liquidity and index weight ensuring steady demand
- 5-year compounded sales growth of 10% shows the FMCG, hotels, and agri diversification strategy is delivering top-line expansion
- 5-year compounded profit growth of 10% confirms earnings have scaled alongside revenue over the medium term
- 40% of analysts rate it a Buy and 43% rate it a Hold, indicating broad Street consensus that downside is limited
- TTM compounded profit has declined -40%, indicating a severe earnings contraction that may not yet be fully priced in
- 1-year stock CAGR of -30% reflects significant capital destruction and potential further momentum-driven selling
- Working capital days have nearly doubled from 75.7 to 144 days, signaling deteriorating operational efficiency and cash conversion
- 5-year sales CAGR of only 9.87% is modest for a company of this scale, suggesting limited organic growth levers
- 3-year stock CAGR of -11% shows the stock has been a consistent underperformer over the medium term
- 10-year stock CAGR of just 3% has barely kept pace with inflation, indicating prolonged value trap characteristics
- TTM sales growth has decelerated to 5% from the 5-year average of 10%, suggesting growth momentum is fading
- 17.14% of analysts recommend Sell, which is relatively elevated for a defensive large-cap name
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- GST 2.0 cigarette tax up 60-65% Jun 3
GST 2.0 effective Feb 1, 2026 raised cigarette taxes 60-65% for ITC, requiring ~35% MRP hikes — the steepest historically. Motilal Oswal expects 10% volume decline in FY27 and 19% cigarette EBIT drop, calling it the most disruptive regulatory reset in industry history.
- Stock hits 52-week low ₹275 Jun 4
ITC shares fell to ₹275.05 on Jun 4, down 23% YTD and 33% over one year from 52-week high of ₹428.55. Stock remains below key ₹300-310 resistance with support at ₹270-250 levels.
- Motilal Oswal cuts target to ₹300 May 29
Motilal Oswal maintained Neutral rating and cut target price to ₹300 (from ₹335), down from ₹515 in Nov 2025. Brokerage sees no near-term positive catalyst with flat volumes expected in FY28E.
- Illicit trade threatens volumes Jun 3
Illicit cigarettes already hold ~26% of total volumes in India. Steep tax hikes historically drive that share higher — illicit market gained nearly 1,000 bps between 2012-2021, and the unprecedented GST 2.0 increase enhances arbitrage for illegal operators.
- FMCG sector underperformance Jun 1
Nifty FMCG index declined 2.36% vs 0.70% for Nifty 50 on Jun 1, falling 6.08% over one month. Weak monsoon forecasts and MSCI rebalancing added to sector-wide pressure on rural demand-dependent companies.
- Cigarette price hikes dent demand Jun 3
ITC raised premium cigarette prices from ₹170 to ₹240 per pack (41% jump), with Classic/Gold Flake variants going to ₹25/stick from ₹18. Partial pass-through of 15-35% in price-sensitive 69mm segment leaves margin compression risk.
- FMCG Others segment inflection Jun 3
Non-cigarette FMCG revenue grew 15% YoY to ₹6,352 crore in Q4 FY26, with segment PBIT surging 51% to ₹526 crore. EBITDA margins expanded 200 bps to 11%, and digital-first portfolio growing 60% annually contributes ~₹1,000 crore ARR.
- ₹14.50 total dividend for FY26 May 26
ITC declared total FY26 dividend of ₹14.50/share (₹8 final + ₹6.50 interim), with 4.81% annual yield. Record date was May 27, with payment scheduled July 24-29 after AGM approval on July 23.
- Smaller Classic at ₹17/stick Jun 17
ITC launched 75mm Classic cigarette variant at ₹17/stick in packs of 10, targeting price-sensitive markets. Strategy allows volume protection by offering palatable price points without alienating consumers amid steep excise duty hikes.
- Paperboards margin recovery Jun 3
Paperboards segment PBIT grew 21.2% YoY to ₹245 crore in Q4 FY26, driven by Minimum Import Price of ₹67,200/MT on virgin multi-layer paperboard and moderating wood prices. Analysts estimate potential ₹10 billion EBIT boost by FY27.
- Leveraged investors accumulating Jun 3
MTF positions surged 86.5% to ₹1,794 crore between April and June 2026, making ITC the second-most leveraged stock on NSE's MTF book. Contrarian value buyers betting on recovery at P/E of 16.89x.
- Q4 FY26 profit up, margins expand May 26
ITC reported Q4 FY26 net profit of ₹5,113 crore (+5% YoY) with EBITDA margin expanding to 40.03% from 34.7%. Revenue from operations grew 17% to ₹21,695 crore; full-year net profit was ₹21,018 crore.
- ITC vs HUL comparison analysis Jun 16
ITC's 3-year revenue CAGR of 3.6% exceeds HUL's 2.1%, with higher dividend yield (5.1% vs 1.99%). However, ITC shares fell 32% vs HUL's 8.4% decline over past year due to tobacco tax concerns.
- 115th AGM set for July 23 Jun 12
ITC will hold its 115th AGM via video conferencing on July 23, 2026 to approve the ₹8/share final dividend for FY26.
- ₹29.10 crore block trade on NSE Jun 3
Approximately 1,049,934 ITC shares traded in a block deal at ₹277.15/share on NSE, totaling ₹29.10 crore — characteristic of institutional-level activity.
- Expert says hold with ₹377 target Jun 12
G Chokkalingam of Equinomics Research gave Hold recommendation at CMP ₹285, noting management plans to hike cigarette prices and agriculture sector performing well. Maintains buy target of ₹377 implying 36% upside.
- BofA conference attendance Jun 2 May 27
ITC attended the BofA 2026 India Conference in Mumbai on June 2 for group and one-on-one investor sessions.
TL;DR: ITC is navigating its most challenging regulatory environment in years as GST 2.0 drove a 60-65% cigarette tax increase, sending shares to 52-week lows near ₹275 — down 33% in one year. The non-cigarette FMCG business is a bright spot with 15% revenue growth and 51% PBIT surge in Q4, but at ₹526 crore PBIT it remains dwarfed by the ₹5,797 crore cigarette segment now under severe pressure. Near-term trajectory hinges on Q1 FY27 results that will reveal the true volume and margin impact of tax hikes, with illicit trade share and pricing flexibility as key watchpoints.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 17,635 | 17,164 | 17,774 | 17,195 | 17,038 | 17,778 | 19,990 | 18,790 | 18,765 | 21,495 | 19,502 | 20,047 | 17,825 |
| Expenses | 11,011 | 10,494 | 11,320 | 10,985 | 10,736 | 11,233 | 13,438 | 12,428 | 12,246 | 14,678 | 12,807 | 13,165 | 10,900 |
| Operating Profit | 6,624 | 6,670 | 6,454 | 6,210 | 6,302 | 6,545 | 6,552 | 6,362 | 6,519 | 6,816 | 6,695 | 6,883 | 6,924 |
| OPM % | 38% | 39% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 33% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 39% |
| Other Income | 683 | 722 | 674 | 820 | 868 | 771 | 690 | 803 | 15,391 | 751 | 739 | 322 | 700 |
| Interest | 12 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 29 |
| Depreciation | 461 | 442 | 453 | 384 | 385 | 403 | 416 | 416 | 411 | 423 | 435 | 431 | 422 |
| PBT | 6,833 | 6,940 | 6,665 | 6,635 | 6,774 | 6,903 | 6,811 | 6,740 | 21,489 | 7,128 | 6,979 | 6,754 | 7,173 |
| Tax % | 24% | 25% | 26% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 8% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 24% |
| Net Profit | 5,243 | 5,190 | 4,965 | 5,407 | 5,191 | 5,177 | 5,054 | 5,013 | 19,808 | 5,343 | 5,187 | 5,018 | 5,470 |
| EPS in Rs | 4.16 | 4.1 | 3.93 | 4.28 | 4.1 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 3.94 | 15.76 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 3.94 | 4.3 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 38,817 | 39,192 | 42,768 | 43,449 | 48,340 | 49,388 | 49,257 | 60,645 | 70,919 | 67,932 | 75,323 | 78,868 |
| Expenses | 24,566 | 24,661 | 27,298 | 26,928 | 29,802 | 30,044 | 32,193 | 40,021 | 45,215 | 42,744 | 49,484 | 51,550 |
| Operating Profit | 14,252 | 14,531 | 15,470 | 16,521 | 18,537 | 19,344 | 17,065 | 20,623 | 25,704 | 25,188 | 25,839 | 27,318 |
| OPM % | 37% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 35% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 35% |
| Other Income | 1,229 | 1,483 | 1,759 | 2,240 | 2,080 | 2,417 | 2,577 | 1,910 | 2,098 | 3,330 | 17,795 | 2,511 |
| Interest | 91 | 78 | 49 | 115 | 71 | 81 | 58 | 60 | 78 | 39 | 45 | 85 |
| Depreciation | 1,028 | 1,077 | 1,153 | 1,236 | 1,397 | 1,645 | 1,646 | 1,732 | 1,809 | 1,518 | 1,646 | 1,711 |
| PBT | 14,362 | 14,859 | 16,026 | 17,409 | 19,150 | 20,035 | 17,938 | 20,740 | 25,915 | 26,961 | 41,943 | 28,033 |
| Tax % | 32% | 36% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 16% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 9,779 | 9,501 | 10,477 | 11,493 | 12,836 | 15,593 | 13,383 | 15,503 | 19,477 | 20,751 | 35,052 | 21,018 |
| EPS in Rs | 8.04 | 7.74 | 8.47 | 9.24 | 10.27 | 12.45 | 10.69 | 12.37 | 15.44 | 16.39 | 27.77 | 16.51 |
| Div. Payout % | 52% | 73% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 82% | 101% | 93% | 100% | 84% | 52% | 88% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 802 | 805 | 1,215 | 1,220 | 1,226 | 1,229 | 1,231 | 1,232 | 1,243 | 1,248 | 1,251 | 1,253 |
| Reserves | 30,934 | 41,875 | 45,198 | 51,290 | 57,915 | 64,044 | 59,116 | 61,223 | 67,912 | 73,259 | 68,779 | 71,254 |
| Borrowings | 269 | 84 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 277 | 271 | 249 | 306 | 303 | 285 | 2,399 |
| Other Liabilities | 13,948 | 8,888 | 9,440 | 11,695 | 12,585 | 11,760 | 13,143 | 14,491 | 16,370 | 16,944 | 17,688 | 18,886 |
| Total Liabilities | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,792 |
| Fixed Assets | 15,303 | 15,107 | 15,893 | 16,524 | 19,374 | 21,713 | 23,298 | 24,232 | 25,851 | 27,820 | 21,955 | 22,545 |
| CWIP | 2,700 | 2,560 | 3,730 | 5,508 | 4,136 | 3,256 | 4,011 | 3,226 | 3,003 | 2,861 | 1,091 | 1,499 |
| Investments | 6,943 | 11,748 | 17,581 | 22,053 | 25,043 | 28,663 | 24,871 | 24,841 | 29,415 | 31,114 | 34,720 | 38,128 |
| Other Assets | 21,006 | 22,237 | 18,694 | 20,156 | 23,185 | 23,678 | 21,580 | 24,898 | 27,561 | 29,959 | 30,237 | 31,620 |
| Total Assets | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,792 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 9,843 | 9,799 | 10,627 | 13,169 | 12,583 | 14,690 | 12,527 | 15,776 | 18,878 | 17,179 | 17,627 | 18,464 |
| Investing | -5,275 | -3,921 | -3,251 | -7,114 | -5,546 | -6,174 | 5,740 | -2,238 | -5,732 | 1,563 | -564 | -2,321 |
| Financing | -4,661 | -5,613 | -7,301 | -6,221 | -6,869 | -8,181 | -18,634 | -13,580 | -13,006 | -18,551 | -17,037 | -16,147 |
| Net Cash Flow | -93 | 266 | 75 | -166 | 169 | 334 | -367 | -43 | 139 | 191 | 26 | -4 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,552 | 7,459 | 7,556 | 10,371 | 9,442 | 12,276 | 10,693 | 13,767 | 16,184 | 13,724 | 15,524 | 16,332 |
| CFO/OP | 100 | 102 | 104 | 116 | 99 | 102 | 99 | 101 | 98 | 92 | 93 | 91 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 19 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 18 |
| Inventory Days | 212 | 244 | 185 | 173 | 165 | 187 | 189 | 150 | 148 | 191 | 178 | 209 |
| Days Payable | 50 | 63 | 60 | 80 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 61 | 59 | 65 | 55 | 63 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 181 | 199 | 145 | 115 | 122 | 129 | 129 | 104 | 105 | 148 | 146 | 164 |
| Working Capital Days | -6 | 51 | 45 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 36 | 31 | 20 | 39 | 45 | 144 |
| ROCE % | 47% | 40% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 28% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 39% |
Documents
Frequently Asked Questions about ITC Ltd
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Company Information
Established in 1910, ITC is the largest cigarette manufacturer and seller in the country. ITC operates in four business segments at present — FMCG Cigarettes, FMCG Others, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. [1]