ITC
ITC
FMCG F&OKey Fundamentals
LargecapDiversified FMCGFMCGTapetide Score
Data-driven rating, 0–100. How it works →
Key Insights
Strengths
4- Company is almost debt free.
- Stock is providing a good dividend yield of 5.67%.
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.2%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 74.5%
Weaknesses
1- The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 9.87% over past five years.
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
ITC Ltd has a market capitalisation of about ₹3,34,474 crore and trades at a P/E of 16.6x and a P/B of 4.63x. Its dividend yield is 5.41% and it has averaged a 35% ROE over the last 3 years. Business momentum has weakened: TTM sales are down 3% and TTM profit is down 1%. The stock has returned -34% over 1 year after a new cigarette tax structure took effect on 1 February 2026, which combines excise duty of ₹2,050-8,500 per 1,000 sticks with GST at 40%.
- The company is almost debt free, and its 3-year average ROE of 35% (5-year: 32%, 10-year: 28%) shows it has consistently earned high returns on capital, which gives it balance-sheet room to absorb a tax shock.
- The dividend yield of 5.41% is high for a large-cap FMCG company. It is supported by a sustained dividend payout ratio of about 74.5%.
- The P/E of 16.6x is well below ITC's own recent history and below the Indian FMCG peer group, which usually trades at much higher multiples. This follows a 1-year stock decline of 34%.
- The stock closed at ₹270.15 on 23 September 2026, about 36.6% below its 52-week high of ₹426.40. Much of the tax impact may already be reflected in the price.
- ITC has shown pricing power. After the 1 February 2026 tax change it raised cigarette prices by about ₹22-25 per pack of 10 sticks, and management has said it will take calibrated pricing actions and rework its cigarette portfolio.
- Over 5 years, sales and profit have both compounded at about 10% a year, a mid-cycle record that includes growth beyond the cigarette business.
- Profit has fallen less than sales (TTM profit -1% vs TTM sales -3%), which suggests margins have held up relatively well despite pressure on revenue.
- The tax regime effective 1 February 2026 set excise duty at ₹2,050-8,500 per 1,000 cigarette sticks on top of a 40% GST slab, replacing the earlier 28% GST plus compensation cess structure. This is a structural headwind for ITC's most profitable segment.
- Retail cigarette prices rose by about ₹22-25 per pack of 10. Increases this large risk lower volumes and push consumers toward illicit or cheaper tobacco products.
- The stock has returned -34% over 1 year and -14% CAGR over 3 years, and ITC lost nearly ₹1 lakh crore of market cap in January 2026 alone. The stock has been under sustained pressure.
- Growth has turned negative: TTM sales are down 3% and TTM profit is down 1%. The 3-year sales CAGR (4%) and profit CAGR (3%) are also well below the 5-year figures of about 10%.
- Long-term returns to shareholders have been weak: the stock's CAGR is only 4% over 5 years and 2% over 10 years, even though 10-year profit CAGR was 8%.
- ROE has fallen from a 3-year average of 35% to 29% in the last year, which points to weaker returns on capital.
- The P/B of 4.63x is still well above book value. If earnings keep falling, the stock may not be as cheap as the headline P/E of 16.6x suggests.
- A 74.5% dividend payout leaves less profit for reinvestment. Future dividend growth depends on profits that are currently falling (TTM -1%).
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Tax shock hits cigarette earnings Sep 23
Since Feb 1, 2026, cigarettes carry 40% GST plus excise of ₹2,050-8,500 per 1,000 sticks. In Q1 FY27, cigarette net revenue fell 25% and segment results fell 35%.
- Volume loss and illicit trade Sep 23
Overall cigarette volumes fell about 20% in April 2026, and King Size was hit hardest. Illicit trade is about one-third of legal industry volume, which limits how much prices can rise.
- Stock near 52-week lows Sep 29
Shares traded at ₹264.25 on Sep 29. They are down 27.61% YTD, 35.32% over one year and 40.73% over three years, against a 52-week range of ₹255.50-426.40.
- Input cost inflation squeezes margins Sep 29
Sugar is at record highs, and edible oil, cocoa, coffee and packaging costs are rising. ITC Foods CEO Hemant Malik said prices will be held through the festive season, with possible hikes in Q3 or Q4 FY27.
- Q1 FY27 profit decline Sep 16
Consolidated profit fell 15.6% YoY to ₹4,508.79 crore, even though product revenue rose 27.82% to ₹29,409.82 crore. 360 ONE raised its FY27 volume decline assumption from -2.5% to -4% and cut PAT estimates by 4%.
- Flat tobacco EBIT outlook Sep 5
Kotak expects tobacco segment EBIT to stay flat over FY2026-29E. The market values the tobacco business at only about 11x forward earnings, and ITC has slipped to 23rd most valued Indian company.
- Bearish technical setup Sep 23
SBI Securities notes the stock is below key weekly moving averages with RSI under 40. The 20-week EMA at ₹280-285 is seen as resistance.
- Happiest Minds deal execution risk Sep 2
The merged entity's pro-forma EBITDA margin of 18.1% is below ITC Infotech's 18.5%, so the deal is mildly dilutive at first. It needs regulatory approval and about 15 months to close.
- Staggered cigarette price hikes continue Sep 23
Gold Flake Premium rose 8% to ₹135, Classic Connect 9.74% to ₹428 and Gold Flake Super Star 12.66% to ₹89. Management says 50-60% of the tax hike has been passed on, and 360 ONE sees realisation per stick reaching neutrality by Q4 FY27.
- 360 ONE sees 65% upside Sep 16
360 ONE kept its BUY rating and ₹440 SOTP target, 65.4% upside from ₹266, at 15.2x FY28 P/E. The stock rose 2.62% to ₹264.75 on the price-hike news.
- Kotak adds ITC, sees value Sep 17
Kotak added ITC to its large-cap model portfolio at a 1.5% weight. It calls the tobacco business cheap at 10.4x forward EPS, with an SoTP value of ₹360 and 19% CAGR in non-tobacco FMCG EBIT over FY26-29E.
- Yoga Bar now fully owned Sep 28
ITC bought the remaining 52.5% of Sproutlife Foods for about ₹645 crore in cash, making it a wholly owned subsidiary from Sep 28, 2026. Sproutlife's FY26 turnover grew 126% to ₹452 crore, and ITC's digital-first portfolio is at about ₹1,500 crore ARR.
- Century Pulp boosts paper capacity Sep 18
Completing the Century Pulp and Paper acquisition adds 4.8 lakh MT, taking capacity to about 1.5 million MT, more than 50% higher. This makes ITC India's largest integrated paperboards business.
- FMCG-Others growth cushions cigarettes Sep 23
Non-cigarette FMCG revenue grew 12% YoY in Q1 FY27 (16% excluding staples), with PBIT up 21%. Dairy, snacks, noodles and frozen foods are growing 20%+.
- Happiest Minds merger creates IT scale Sep 2
ITC Infotech will buy a 22.1% promoter stake for about ₹1,330 crore, then merge with Happiest Minds via a 25:81 share swap, leaving ITC with 73.4%. The combined firm targets $1 billion revenue by FY28 and listing by Q2/Q3 FY28.
- Aashirvaad ₹20,000 crore spend target Sep 13
ITC aims to double consumer spend on Aashirvaad from about ₹10,000 crore to ₹20,000 crore in five years. Value-added adjacencies now make up about 16% of the staples portfolio, and FY26 FMCG consumer spend was about ₹37,000 crore.
- Eastern India dairy expansion push Sep 28
ITC wants to convert loose-milk buyers in Bihar, where over 80% of consumers buy loose milk, as well as West Bengal and Jharkhand. It runs seven processing plants and works with about 33,300 farmers through Project Gomukh.
- Trading window closes for Q2 Sep 25
The trading window for designated employees closes from Oct 1, 2026, ahead of the Q2 FY27 results.
- ₹302 crore block trade Sep 18
About 1.14 crore shares changed hands on BSE at ₹265.5 each, worth ₹302.03 crore. This is an unconfirmed real-time signal.
- Investor conference participation Sep 9
ITC attended the Jefferies India Forum on Sep 18 and the J.P. Morgan India Conference on Sep 21, 2026.
- Puri on diversification journey Sep 28
Non-cigarette FMCG took 17 years to reach ₹10,000 crore revenue, then grew to ₹24,000 crore in nine years up to FY26. Puri sees headroom in IT, FMCG, agri, hotels and paperboards.
- Regional festive marketing campaigns Sep 6
ITC Foods ran its most intensive campaign yet at the Jagannath Rath Yatra, featuring 13 Odia dishes made with Yippee noodles. Campaigns for Durga Puja and Chhath Puja are planned next.
TL;DR: ITC is under pressure from the Feb 2026 cigarette tax overhaul: Q1 FY27 cigarette segment results fell 35%, volumes are dropping, and the stock is down about 28% YTD near its 52-week low. Rising food input costs add to margin risk. On the other side, ITC keeps raising cigarette prices in steps, non-cigarette FMCG grew PBIT 21%, and it closed the Yoga Bar and Century Pulp deals, which leads brokerages like 360 ONE (₹440) and Kotak (₹360) to call the stock deeply undervalued. The trend looks to be stabilising rather than recovering, and the Q2 FY27 results will show whether price hikes are making up for lost volume and higher costs.
Quarterly Results
| Particulars | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 17,164 | 17,774 | 17,195 | 17,038 | 17,778 | 19,990 | 18,790 | 18,765 | 21,495 | 19,502 | 20,047 | 17,825 | 19,114 |
| Expenses | 10,494 | 11,320 | 10,985 | 10,736 | 11,233 | 13,438 | 12,428 | 12,246 | 14,678 | 12,807 | 13,165 | 10,900 | 13,934 |
| Operating Profit | 6,670 | 6,454 | 6,210 | 6,302 | 6,545 | 6,552 | 6,362 | 6,519 | 6,816 | 6,695 | 6,883 | 6,924 | 5,181 |
| OPM % | 39% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 33% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 34% | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| Other Income | 722 | 674 | 820 | 868 | 771 | 690 | 803 | 15,391 | 751 | 739 | 322 | 700 | 1,148 |
| Interest | 10 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 29 | 40 |
| Depreciation | 442 | 453 | 384 | 385 | 403 | 416 | 416 | 411 | 423 | 435 | 431 | 422 | 428 |
| PBT | 6,940 | 6,665 | 6,635 | 6,774 | 6,903 | 6,811 | 6,740 | 21,489 | 7,128 | 6,979 | 6,754 | 7,173 | 5,861 |
| Tax % | 25% | 26% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 8% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 24% | 23% |
| Net Profit | 5,190 | 4,965 | 5,407 | 5,191 | 5,177 | 5,054 | 5,013 | 19,808 | 5,343 | 5,187 | 5,018 | 5,470 | 4,509 |
| EPS in Rs | 4.1 | 3.93 | 4.28 | 4.1 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 3.94 | 15.76 | 4.19 | 4.09 | 3.94 | 4.3 | 3.51 |
Profit & Loss
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 38,817 | 39,192 | 42,768 | 43,449 | 48,340 | 49,388 | 49,257 | 60,645 | 70,919 | 67,932 | 75,323 | 78,868 | 76,488 |
| Expenses | 24,566 | 24,661 | 27,298 | 26,928 | 29,802 | 30,044 | 32,193 | 40,021 | 45,215 | 42,744 | 49,492 | 51,562 | 50,806 |
| Operating Profit | 14,252 | 14,531 | 15,470 | 16,521 | 18,537 | 19,344 | 17,065 | 20,623 | 25,704 | 25,188 | 25,832 | 27,306 | 25,682 |
| OPM % | 37% | 37% | 36% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 35% | 34% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 35% | 34% |
| Other Income | 1,229 | 1,483 | 1,759 | 2,240 | 2,080 | 2,417 | 2,577 | 1,910 | 2,098 | 3,330 | 17,803 | 2,523 | 2,908 |
| Interest | 91 | 78 | 49 | 115 | 71 | 81 | 58 | 60 | 78 | 39 | 45 | 85 | 108 |
| Depreciation | 1,028 | 1,077 | 1,153 | 1,236 | 1,397 | 1,645 | 1,646 | 1,732 | 1,809 | 1,518 | 1,646 | 1,711 | 1,715 |
| PBT | 14,362 | 14,859 | 16,026 | 17,409 | 19,150 | 20,035 | 17,938 | 20,740 | 25,915 | 26,961 | 41,943 | 28,033 | 26,766 |
| Tax % | 32% | 36% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 23% | 16% | 25% | — |
| Net Profit | 9,779 | 9,501 | 10,477 | 11,493 | 12,836 | 15,593 | 13,383 | 15,503 | 19,477 | 20,751 | 35,052 | 21,018 | 20,184 |
| EPS in Rs | 8.04 | 7.74 | 8.47 | 9.24 | 10.27 | 12.45 | 10.69 | 12.37 | 15.44 | 16.39 | 27.77 | 16.51 | 15.84 |
| Div. Payout % | 52% | 73% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 82% | 101% | 93% | 100% | 84% | 52% | 88% | — |
Balance Sheet
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 802 | 805 | 1,215 | 1,220 | 1,226 | 1,229 | 1,231 | 1,232 | 1,243 | 1,248 | 1,251 | 1,253 |
| Reserves | 30,934 | 41,875 | 45,198 | 51,290 | 57,915 | 64,044 | 59,116 | 61,223 | 67,912 | 73,259 | 68,779 | 71,254 |
| Borrowings | 269 | 84 | 46 | 36 | 13 | 277 | 271 | 249 | 306 | 303 | 285 | 2,399 |
| Other Liabilities | 13,948 | 8,888 | 9,440 | 11,695 | 12,585 | 11,760 | 13,143 | 14,491 | 16,370 | 16,944 | 17,688 | 18,731 |
| Total Liabilities | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,637 |
| Fixed Assets | 15,303 | 15,107 | 15,893 | 16,524 | 19,374 | 21,713 | 23,298 | 24,232 | 25,851 | 27,820 | 21,955 | 22,443 |
| CWIP | 2,700 | 2,560 | 3,730 | 5,508 | 4,136 | 3,256 | 4,011 | 3,226 | 3,003 | 2,861 | 1,091 | 1,602 |
| Investments | 6,943 | 11,748 | 17,581 | 22,053 | 25,043 | 28,663 | 24,871 | 24,841 | 29,415 | 31,114 | 34,720 | 38,128 |
| Other Assets | 21,006 | 22,237 | 18,694 | 20,156 | 23,185 | 23,678 | 21,580 | 24,898 | 27,561 | 29,959 | 30,237 | 31,464 |
| Total Assets | 45,952 | 51,651 | 55,898 | 64,241 | 71,739 | 77,311 | 73,761 | 77,196 | 85,831 | 91,754 | 88,003 | 93,637 |
Cash Flow
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 9,843 | 9,799 | 10,627 | 13,169 | 12,583 | 14,690 | 12,527 | 15,776 | 18,878 | 17,179 | 17,627 | 18,464 |
| Investing | -5,275 | -3,921 | -3,251 | -7,114 | -5,546 | -6,174 | 5,740 | -2,238 | -5,732 | 1,563 | -564 | -2,321 |
| Financing | -4,661 | -5,613 | -7,301 | -6,221 | -6,869 | -8,181 | -18,634 | -13,580 | -13,006 | -18,551 | -17,037 | -16,147 |
| Net Cash Flow | -93 | 266 | 75 | -166 | 169 | 334 | -367 | -43 | 139 | 191 | 26 | -4 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,552 | 7,459 | 7,556 | 10,371 | 9,442 | 12,276 | 10,693 | 13,767 | 16,184 | 13,724 | 15,524 | 16,332 |
| CFO/OP | 100 | 102 | 104 | 116 | 99 | 102 | 99 | 101 | 98 | 92 | 93 | 91 |
Ratios
| Particulars | Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 19 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 18 |
| Inventory Days | 212 | 244 | 185 | 173 | 165 | 187 | 189 | 150 | 148 | 191 | 178 | 209 |
| Days Payable | 50 | 63 | 60 | 80 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 61 | 59 | 65 | 55 | 63 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 181 | 199 | 145 | 115 | 122 | 129 | 129 | 104 | 105 | 148 | 146 | 164 |
| Working Capital Days | -6 | 51 | 45 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 36 | 31 | 20 | 39 | 45 | 47 |
| ROCE % | 47% | 40% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 32% | 28% | 33% | 39% | 36% | 37% | 39% |
Insights
BetaAI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources
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Company Information
Established in 1910, ITC is the largest cigarette manufacturer and seller in the country. ITC operates in four business segments at present — FMCG Cigarettes, FMCG Others, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. [1]
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