Hindalco Industries Ltd
Hindalco Industries Ltd
Commodities F&OIncorporated in 1958, Hindalco Industries Ltd. is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group. The Co and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the production of Aluminium and Copper. It is also engaged in the manufacturing of aluminium sheet, extrusion and light gauge products for use in packaging markets like beverage and food, can and foil products, etc. [1]
Hindalco offers strong profit growth (36% CAGR over 5 years) and reasonable valuation at 16.9x PE, but low ROE of ~13% and commodity cyclicality warrant caution. With 43% of analysts rating it a Hold and only 37% a Buy, the risk-reward is balanced at current levels.
Key Fundamentals
LargecapAluminiumMetals & MiningTechnical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
1- Company has delivered good profit growth of 36.2% CAGR over last 5 years
Weaknesses
2- Company has a low return on equity of 12.7% over last 3 years.
- Company might be capitalizing the interest cost
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Hindalco offers strong profit growth (36% CAGR over 5 years) and reasonable valuation at 16.9x PE, but low ROE of ~13% and commodity cyclicality warrant caution. With 43% of analysts rating it a Hold and only 37% a Buy, the risk-reward is balanced at current levels.
- Exceptional compounded profit growth of 36% CAGR over 5 years, significantly outpacing sector peers
- Stock has delivered 56% returns over the past 1 year, reflecting strong momentum and investor confidence
- Reasonable PE ratio of 16.9x for a commodities company with diversified aluminium and copper operations
- Consistent long-term stock CAGR of 22-23% over 5 and 10 year periods respectively, rewarding patient investors
- TTM sales growth of 15% indicates healthy demand environment and volume ramp-up across segments
- Price-to-book ratio of 1.66x is reasonable for a capital-intensive business with global operations via Novelis
- Large-cap status with market cap of Rs 2,25,442 crore provides liquidity and institutional backing
- 10-year compounded profit CAGR of 79% demonstrates long-term earnings transformation from cyclical lows
- Low return on equity of 12.7-13% over 3 years indicates suboptimal capital efficiency for shareholders
- Only 37% of analysts have a Buy rating while 20% recommend Sell, signalling divided opinion on upside
- Dividend yield of just 0.5% offers minimal income return to shareholders despite strong profitability
- Company might be capitalizing interest costs, which could overstate reported profitability and asset values
- Commodity cyclicality risk — aluminium and copper prices are vulnerable to global slowdown and China demand weakness
- TTM profit growth has decelerated to 9% compared to 20% CAGR over 3 years, suggesting margin pressure
- 3-year sales CAGR of only 7% is modest, indicating revenue growth has lagged profit growth and may not be sustainable
- High capital intensity with potential elevated debt levels (debt-to-equity data unavailable) raises balance sheet concerns
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Indonesia capacity threatens surplus May 27
Indonesia adding 780,000 tons of primary aluminium capacity in 2026 (output jumping from 845,000 to 1,550,000 tons). If global demand weakens 2-3%, LME prices could fall from $3,600+ to $2,500-2,800/ton, impacting EBITDA/ton by $150-200.
- Novelis scrap costs and disruptions May 27
Novelis faces elevated scrap costs, tariff headwinds, and Oswego fire causing 73 KT lower shipments with $53 million negative EBITDA impact. Near-term profitability pressure despite resilient demand.
- Bay Minette execution risk May 27
A 6-month delay in the $5 billion Bay Minette facility could reduce F27-29 EBITDA CAGR from 13% to 9-10%, delay deleveraging by 1-2 years, and compress valuation multiples from 7.7x to 6.5-7.0x EV/EBITDA.
- Structural aluminium supply tightness May 27
China's production at 98.2% of its 45 MT regulatory cap with exports expected to decline 9% in 2025. Global inventories at ~8 million tons (40 days consumption) with 1.5 MT deficit expected in CY2026.
- First-decile cost curve position May 27
Hindalco delivers $300-400/ton cost advantage vs Western smelters, with Q4 FY26 adjusted EBITDA/ton of $544 (up 10% YoY). Three captive coal mines to standardize costs for 15-20 years.
- Morgan Stanley Overweight, ₹1,325 target May 27
Rating supported by 13% EBITDA CAGR (F27-29), 15% F29 ROE, and deleveraging from 4.1x to ~2.0x. FCF inflection expected from F28 as Bay Minette capex normalizes to ~$350 million maintenance.
- India demand boom continues May 27
India aluminium demand grew 9% YoY to ~1.6 MT in Q4 FY26; copper demand grew 10% YoY to 402 KT. Per capita aluminium at 2.2 kg vs 8 kg global average signals substantial headroom.
- New bicycle components plant commissioned Jun 19
Commissioned aluminium bicycle facility in Chakan, Pune with annual capacity of 500,000 frames/forks, 750,000 handlebars, and 800,000 pairs of wheel rims for domestic and international markets.
- Eternia targeting ₹1,000 Cr by FY29 Jun 4
Launched flagship Eternia Experience Centre in New Delhi and Bilaspur manufacturing hub. Aluminium window business targeting ₹1,000 crore revenue by FY29, driven by 65% CAGR over last three years.
- Middle East supply shock supports prices May 27
3-3.5 million tonnes at risk in 2026 with EGA halted, Alba at 30% utilization, and Qatalum at 60%. Recovery timelines of 6-12 months keep supply constrained.
- 67th AGM set for July 23 Jun 22
Board recommended ₹5 per share final dividend for FY26 with record date of July 10, 2026. Meeting via video conferencing.
- Novelis amends credit agreement Jun 19
Novelis filed Form 8-K regarding amendment to its Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement on June 19, 2026.
- New Copper CEO appointed Jun 18
Kapil Agrawal appointed CEO (Designate) - Copper effective Nov 1, 2026, assuming full charge from March 1, 2027.
- ₹60 Cr block trade on NSE Jun 10
Approximately 570,818 shares traded at ₹1,050.90 per share totaling ₹59.99 crores, likely institutional activity.
- Investor conference attendance in June May 29
Hindalco representatives attending four investor conferences June 1-8, 2026, including BofA and Morgan Stanley organized meets.
TL;DR: Hindalco is well-positioned structurally with first-decile costs, China's production cap, and Middle East disruptions creating a tight aluminium market with 1.5 MT deficit expected in CY2026. India's domestic demand growth (9% aluminium, 10% copper YoY) and downstream expansion add medium-term earnings visibility. Key risks are Indonesia's rapid capacity build-out and Bay Minette execution delays that could compress the 13% EBITDA CAGR thesis. The trend is net positive as supply constraints and India growth outweigh near-term Novelis headwinds, with F28 marking the expected FCF inflection point.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 55,857 | 52,991 | 54,169 | 52,808 | 55,994 | 57,013 | 58,203 | 58,390 | 64,890 | 64,232 | 66,058 | 66,521 | 78,133 |
| Expenses | 50,530 | 47,277 | 48,557 | 46,943 | 49,314 | 49,510 | 50,320 | 50,807 | 56,054 | 56,326 | 57,092 | 58,530 | 68,119 |
| Operating Profit | 5,327 | 5,714 | 5,612 | 5,865 | 6,680 | 7,503 | 7,883 | 7,583 | 8,836 | 7,906 | 8,966 | 7,991 | 10,014 |
| OPM % | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 13% |
| Other Income | 354 | 381 | 496 | 281 | 362 | 96 | 561 | 469 | 706 | 604 | 532 | -2,061 | -3,146 |
| Interest | 986 | 992 | 1,034 | 944 | 888 | 859 | 869 | 817 | 874 | 754 | 803 | 881 | 1,042 |
| Depreciation | 1,856 | 1,786 | 1,843 | 1,874 | 2,018 | 1,892 | 1,932 | 1,939 | 2,118 | 2,080 | 2,155 | 2,220 | 2,375 |
| PBT | 2,839 | 3,317 | 3,231 | 3,328 | 4,136 | 4,848 | 5,643 | 5,296 | 6,550 | 5,676 | 6,540 | 2,829 | 3,451 |
| Tax % | 15% | 26% | 32% | 30% | 23% | 37% | 31% | 29% | 19% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 25% |
| Net Profit | 2,411 | 2,454 | 2,196 | 2,331 | 3,174 | 3,074 | 3,909 | 3,735 | 5,284 | 4,004 | 4,741 | 2,049 | 2,597 |
| EPS in Rs | 10.73 | 10.92 | 9.77 | 10.37 | 14.12 | 13.68 | 17.39 | 16.62 | 23.51 | 17.82 | 21.1 | 9.12 | 11.56 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,04,281 | 98,759 | 1,00,184 | 1,15,183 | 1,30,542 | 1,18,144 | 1,32,008 | 1,95,059 | 2,23,202 | 2,15,962 | 2,38,496 | 2,74,944 |
| Expenses | 95,437 | 90,981 | 87,867 | 1,01,488 | 1,15,031 | 1,03,838 | 1,14,449 | 1,66,712 | 2,00,536 | 1,92,090 | 2,06,691 | 2,40,064 |
| Operating Profit | 8,844 | 7,778 | 12,317 | 13,695 | 15,511 | 14,306 | 17,559 | 28,347 | 22,666 | 23,872 | 31,805 | 34,880 |
| OPM % | 8% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Other Income | -832 | 1,500 | 1,198 | 2,879 | 1,127 | 906 | -987 | 1,253 | 1,307 | 1,519 | 1,832 | -4,074 |
| Interest | 4,178 | 5,134 | 5,742 | 3,911 | 3,778 | 4,197 | 3,738 | 3,768 | 3,646 | 3,858 | 3,419 | 3,480 |
| Depreciation | 3,493 | 4,347 | 4,457 | 4,506 | 4,777 | 5,091 | 6,628 | 6,729 | 7,086 | 7,521 | 7,881 | 8,830 |
| PBT | 340 | -203 | 3,315 | 8,157 | 8,083 | 5,924 | 6,206 | 19,103 | 13,241 | 14,012 | 22,337 | 18,496 |
| Tax % | 75% | 245% | 43% | 25% | 32% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Net Profit | 259 | -702 | 1,882 | 6,083 | 5,495 | 3,767 | 3,483 | 13,730 | 10,097 | 10,155 | 16,002 | 13,391 |
| EPS in Rs | 4.14 | -1.21 | 8.47 | 27.1 | 24.48 | 16.77 | 15.5 | 61.1 | 44.93 | 45.19 | 71.2 | 59.59 |
| Div. Payout % | 24% | -82% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 207 | 207 | 223 | 223 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 |
| Reserves | 38,122 | 40,402 | 45,836 | 54,629 | 57,279 | 58,095 | 66,311 | 77,969 | 94,584 | 1,05,924 | 1,23,487 | 1,36,361 |
| Borrowings | 68,468 | 67,552 | 63,817 | 52,074 | 52,415 | 68,399 | 67,206 | 64,486 | 60,291 | 56,356 | 63,929 | 99,161 |
| Other Liabilities | 34,950 | 32,986 | 36,268 | 40,088 | 42,056 | 41,902 | 55,083 | 79,178 | 68,392 | 68,221 | 76,662 | 1,12,051 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,41,746 | 1,41,146 | 1,46,144 | 1,47,014 | 1,51,972 | 1,68,618 | 1,88,822 | 2,21,855 | 2,23,489 | 2,30,723 | 2,64,300 | 3,47,795 |
| Fixed Assets | 71,959 | 85,648 | 84,687 | 85,088 | 85,860 | 89,195 | 1,00,269 | 1,06,874 | 1,10,626 | 1,11,810 | 1,16,556 | 1,32,208 |
| CWIP | 14,111 | 4,214 | 1,814 | 2,063 | 4,097 | 7,721 | 10,202 | 4,945 | 7,700 | 14,867 | 27,397 | 47,569 |
| Investments | 12,346 | 12,463 | 15,157 | 10,781 | 9,012 | 9,411 | 17,133 | 14,119 | 14,116 | 15,444 | 24,158 | 24,958 |
| Other Assets | 43,330 | 38,821 | 44,486 | 49,081 | 53,003 | 62,291 | 61,218 | 95,917 | 91,047 | 88,602 | 96,189 | 1,43,060 |
| Total Assets | 1,41,746 | 1,41,146 | 1,46,144 | 1,47,014 | 1,51,972 | 1,68,618 | 1,88,822 | 2,21,855 | 2,23,489 | 2,30,723 | 2,64,300 | 3,47,795 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 7,143 | 11,688 | 12,687 | 10,898 | 11,977 | 12,665 | 17,232 | 16,838 | 19,208 | 24,056 | 24,410 | 10,250 |
| Investing | -3,873 | -3,220 | -2,876 | 5,333 | -5,456 | -7,101 | -25,280 | -6,773 | -7,559 | -14,267 | -24,609 | -26,583 |
| Financing | -2,437 | -8,862 | -5,552 | -16,412 | -5,466 | 6,610 | -4,882 | -6,765 | -10,450 | -10,817 | -1,816 | 20,087 |
| Net Cash Flow | 833 | -394 | 4,259 | -181 | 1,055 | 12,174 | -12,930 | 3,300 | 1,199 | -1,028 | -2,015 | 3,754 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,427 | 7,636 | 9,818 | 7,942 | 6,009 | 5,933 | 11,715 | 11,483 | 9,571 | 8,378 | 4,006 | -19,508 |
| CFO/OP | 94 | 166 | 109 | 94 | 89 | 89 | 105 | 73 | 97 | 112 | 94 | 48 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 32 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 36 | 39 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 36 |
| Inventory Days | 104 | 103 | 120 | 115 | 103 | 120 | 146 | 138 | 111 | 111 | 123 | 156 |
| Days Payable | 87 | 92 | 115 | 108 | 96 | 98 | 135 | 128 | 93 | 94 | 102 | 127 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 49 | 40 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 51 | 47 | 49 | 45 | 45 | 51 | 65 |
| Working Capital Days | -6 | 4 | -17 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 13 |
| ROCE % | 6% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 15% | 14% |
Documents
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Company Information
Incorporated in 1958, Hindalco Industries Ltd. is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group. The Co and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the production of Aluminium and Copper. It is also engaged in the manufacturing of aluminium sheet, extrusion and light gauge products for use in packaging markets like beverage and food, can and foil products, etc. [1]