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Happy Forgings

HAPPYFORGE NSE

Key Fundamentals

SmallcapCastings & ForgingsIndustrial Products
Market Cap
₹19,660 Cr
Volatility
Moderate
P/E Ratio
57.73
EBITDA
₹502 Cr
Return on Equity
14.17%
Debt to Equity
0.16
Book Value
₹225.44
EPS
₹25.77
52W High
₹2,470
52W Low
₹888.75

Tapetide Score

Data-driven rating, 0–100. How it works →

Key Insights

Weaknesses

2
  • Stock is trading at 8.88 times its book value
  • Dividend payout has been low at 12.9% of profits over last 3 years

Growth Rate

Revenue Growth
9.04% higher than 3Y
Net Income Growth
12.79% lower than 3Y
Cash Flow Change
52.11% lower than 3Y
ROE
-2.01% lower than 3Y
ROCE
-2.47% higher than 3Y
EBITDA Margin (Avg.)
3.55% lower than 3Y

AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear

5d ago
AI opinion · based on fundamentals
Risk high

Happy Forgings Ltd has a market capitalisation of about ₹19,836 crore and trades at 60.1x earnings and 9.24x book value. Its 5-year sales and profit have compounded at 21% and 28% respectively, while 3-year growth has been slower at 9% for sales and 13% for profit. Return on equity has held in the 15-18% range but has eased from 18% (5-year) to 15% (last year), and the stock has returned 115% over the past year.

Bull Case 7
  • Profit has compounded at 28% over 5 years, ahead of 21% sales growth over the same period. Earnings growing faster than revenue suggests operating leverage or better margins over the longer cycle.
  • Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) sales growth of 16% is well above the 3-year sales CAGR of 9%. This points to demand picking up again after a slower middle period.
  • TTM profit growth of 22% beats TTM sales growth of 16%, a gap of about 6 percentage points. That indicates margins widening in the most recent period.
  • ROE has stayed in a mid-teens band, averaging 18% over 5 years, 16% over 3 years and 15% last year. For a capital-intensive forging business, these are steady returns on shareholder capital.
  • With dividend payout at only 12.9% of profits over 3 years, roughly 87% of earnings is kept in the business. That money can fund capacity expansion and new product lines internally.
  • The stock's 115% 1-year return, alongside 22% TTM profit growth, shows strong market recognition of its earnings momentum and business positioning.
  • A market capitalisation of about ₹19,836 crore puts the company among the larger listed players in precision forgings. This scale can support institutional interest and liquidity.
Bear Case 8
  • A P/E of 60.1 against a 3-year profit CAGR of 13% gives a PEG ratio of about 4.6. Against 22% TTM profit growth, the PEG is still about 2.7, so the valuation assumes growth well above recent history.
  • A price-to-book of 9.24 combined with a 15% ROE means investors pay about 9x book value for mid-teens returns. That leaves an implied earnings yield of only about 1.7%.
  • The 115% 1-year stock return far outpaces 22% TTM profit growth. Most of the recent price gain therefore reflects a higher valuation multiple rather than earnings growth.
  • ROE has fallen from 18% (5-year) to 16% (3-year) to 15% (last year). Capital efficiency is slowly declining as the equity base grows.
  • The 3-year sales CAGR of 9% and profit CAGR of 13% are much lower than the 5-year figures of 21% and 28%. The higher long-term numbers may be flattered by a low starting base.
  • Dividend yield is 0.19% and payout has averaged 12.9% of profits over 3 years. Income returns to shareholders are minimal at current prices.
  • The business depends on cyclical end markets such as commercial vehicles, tractors and industrial equipment. At a 60.1x P/E, a slowdown in these segments leaves little room for error in the valuation.
  • 3-year, 5-year and 10-year stock return data are not available, reflecting the company's short listed history. This limits any assessment of how the stock performs across a full market cycle.

This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

AI News Digest

21h ago
Headwinds 4
  • Rising steel and input costs Sep 16

    Raw material costs weighed on Q1FY27, and Motilal Oswal expects some near-term margin pressure from higher input prices. Any margin gain depends on steel cost pass-through coming through in Q2FY27.

  • FY27 margin guided flat Sep 16

    Management expects FY27 EBITDA margin to stay at the FY26 level of 30.4%, below Q1FY27's 31.3%. That points to slower margin gains for the rest of the year.

  • Stretched rally raises valuation risk Sep 16

    The stock is up 87% in calendar 2026 and hit a 52-week high of ₹2,470 on Sep 1. Much of the expected growth may already be in the price, so the stock could fall sharply if the company misses on execution.

  • Further capex depends on orders Sep 16

    Spending beyond the ₹250 crore already deployed and ₹150 crore planned for FY28 depends on new orders and customer needs. That leaves ₹250 crore of the ₹650 crore heavy forgings plan uncommitted.

Positives 6
  • Strong Q1FY27 beat Sep 16

    Q1FY27 volumes grew 23% YoY and revenue rose 27%. EBITDA margin expanded 280 bps YoY to 31.3%, helped by price hikes and a better product mix.

  • ₹9.5bn order book visibility Sep 16

    The ₹9.5 billion order book is expected to drive most topline growth over FY27-29. About 70% of it comes from PVs and industrials, and around 60% is export-linked.

  • 25/28/30% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR Sep 16

    Motilal Oswal projects revenue, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 25%, 28% and 30% over FY26-29. It credits new orders, higher realizations, a better mix and operating leverage.

  • Margin path to 33% by FY29 Sep 16

    Motilal Oswal expects EBITDA margin to rise from about 31% now to 33% by FY29. It cites product mix, operating leverage and a captive solar plant starting in FY28.

  • 52-week high at ₹2,470 Sep 16

    Shares hit a new 52-week high of ₹2,470 on Sep 1 and are up 87% in calendar 2026. The rally reflects investor confidence in the order book.

  • High-teens FY27 volume guidance Sep 16

    Management guides high-teens volume growth for FY27. It expects domestic demand to stay strong and export momentum to improve.

Neutral 3
  • Revenue mix shift underway Sep 16

    PVs and industrials make up 24% of revenue today, and management expects that to reach 45-50% over the medium term. This reduces dependence on the core commercial vehicle segment, but it will take several years.

  • ₹650 crore heavy forgings capex Sep 16

    Of the ₹650 crore plan, ₹250 crore is already deployed and ₹150 crore is set for FY28. The new capacity targets PVs, industrials, heavy engines and data centre power infrastructure.

  • Captive solar plant in FY28 Sep 16

    The captive solar project starts operating in FY28. It should cut power costs and support margins, but it adds nothing in the near term.

TL;DR: Happy Forgings is executing well: Q1FY27 revenue grew 27%, margin reached 31.3%, and a ₹9.5bn order book backs 25-30% earnings growth forecasts through FY29. The main risks are input cost inflation, flat FY27 margin guidance of 30.4%, and a valuation stretched by an 87% rally this year. The trend is improving, and the next test is whether steel cost pass-through in Q2FY27 and the shift toward higher-margin PV, industrial and export orders keep margins rising.

Quarterly Results

Particulars Jun 2023Sep 2023Dec 2023Mar 2024Jun 2024Sep 2024Dec 2024Mar 2025Jun 2025Sep 2025Dec 2025Mar 2026Jun 2026
Sales
330
343
342
343
341
361
354
352
354
377
391
424
449
Expenses
230
249
247
246
244
256
253
250
253
262
271
291
309
Operating Profit
100
94
95
97
98
105
101
102
101
116
120
133
141
OPM %
30%
27%
28%
28%
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
31%
31%
31%
31%
Other Income
3
1
3
7
8
13
7
10
10
6
8
6
11
Interest
3
4
4
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
3
Depreciation
15
16
17
16
18
20
19
20
21
22
22
25
26
PBT
85
74
78
87
86
97
87
90
89
99
104
111
123
Tax %
25%
25%
25%
25%
26%
27%
26%
24%
26%
26%
24%
25%
25%
Net Profit
64
55
58
66
64
71
65
68
66
73
79
84
91
EPS in Rs
7.16
6.17
6.15
6.98
6.77
7.58
6.85
7.18
6.97
7.79
8.37
8.86
9.69
Figures in ₹ Crores

Profit & Loss

Particulars Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026TTM
Sales
585
860
1,197
1,358
1,409
1,546
1,642
Expenses
426
629
856
971
1,002
1,076
1,132
Operating Profit
159
231
341
388
407
471
510
OPM %
27%
27%
28%
29%
29%
30%
31%
Other Income
6
6
6
13
37
31
32
Interest
12
7
12
12
8
10
11
Depreciation
36
38
54
65
77
89
95
PBT
117
192
280
324
360
402
436
Tax %
26%
26%
25%
25%
26%
25%
—
Net Profit
86
142
209
243
267
302
327
EPS in Rs
966
15.9
23.32
25.79
28.38
31.97
34.71
Div. Payout %
0%
0%
6%
16%
11%
13%
—
Figures in ₹ Crores

Balance Sheet

Particulars Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Equity Capital
9
18
18
19
19
19
Reserves
636
770
970
1,594
1,831
2,109
Borrowings
153
240
219
143
228
330
Other Liabilities
76
102
119
130
138
175
Total Liabilities
874
1,130
1,326
1,886
2,215
2,633
Fixed Assets
415
456
678
744
908
1,108
CWIP
40
212
75
127
123
237
Investments
0
0
0
0
80
237
Other Assets
419
461
573
1,016
1,105
1,050
Total Assets
874
1,130
1,326
1,886
2,215
2,633
Figures in ₹ Crores

Cash Flow

Particulars Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Operating
60
80
209
189
292
445
Investing
-59
-166
-172
-470
-320
-497
Financing
0
83
-37
281
40
65
Net Cash Flow
1
-3
0
1
12
13
Free Cash Flow
-32
-111
35
-5
12
-16
CFO/OP
59
53
80
71
92
114
Figures in ₹ Crores

Ratios

Particulars Mar 2021Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 2026
Debtor Days
103
94
94
96
110
93
Inventory Days
176
173
112
137
143
134
Days Payable
55
42
32
34
28
34
Cash Conversion Cycle
225
226
175
199
226
193
Working Capital Days
82
76
71
102
97
77
ROCE %
—
22%
26%
23%
19%
18%

Insights

Beta

AI-extracted from concalls & annual reports · figures as reported, with sources

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Shareholding Pattern

Others0.78%Promot.78.46%FIIs1.88%Public3.35%DIIs15.54%As ofJun 2026

Documents

Frequently Asked Questions about Happy Forgings

What does Happy Forgings Ltd do?
Incorporated in July 1979, Happy Forgings Limited is an Indian manufacturer specializing in designing and manufacturing heavy forgings and high-precision machined components.[1]
Where is Happy Forgings Ltd (HAPPYFORGE) listed?
Happy Forgings Ltd trades as HAPPYFORGE on the NSE and under code 544057 on the BSE.
Which sector does Happy Forgings Ltd belong to?
Happy Forgings Ltd is classified under the Industrial Products sector, in the Castings & Forgings industry.
What is the market capitalisation of Happy Forgings Ltd?
Happy Forgings Ltd has a market capitalisation of ₹19,660 Cr, which places it in the Mid Cap band.
What is the PE ratio of Happy Forgings Ltd?
Happy Forgings Ltd trades at a PE ratio of 57.73, on earnings per share of ₹25.77, against a book value of ₹225.44 per share.
What is the 52-week high and low of Happy Forgings Ltd?
Over the last 52 weeks Happy Forgings Ltd has traded between ₹888.75 and ₹2,470.
Does Happy Forgings Ltd pay dividends?
Happy Forgings Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.19%.
What is the Return on Equity (ROE) of Happy Forgings Ltd?
Happy Forgings Ltd reported a return on equity of 14.17%. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.16.

Company Information

Incorporated in July 1979, Happy Forgings Limited is an Indian manufacturer specializing in designing and manufacturing heavy forgings and high-precision machined components.[1]

Website happyforgingsltd.com
CEO Mr. Paritosh Kumar Garg
Employees 3,171
Listed 2023-12-27
Face Value ₹ 2
Issued Size 9,43,27,921

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