Cummins India Ltd
Cummins India Ltd
Industrials F&OCummins India Ltd is a part of the Cummins Inc. Group USA. It designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and alternative fuel engines from 2.8 to 100 liters, diesel and alternative-fueled power generator sets of up to 3000 kW (3750 kVA), as well as related components and technology.[1]
Cummins India is a high-quality, debt-free compounder with 30% ROE and 31% profit CAGR over 5 years, but the stock trades at 68.8x PE and 19.2x book value after a 79% rally in the last year. Analyst opinion is deeply split with 41% buy and 41% sell ratings, suggesting the valuation already prices in strong execution.
Key Fundamentals
LargecapCompressors Pumps & Diesel EnginesIndustrial ProductsTechnical Indicators
Key Insights
Strengths
4- Company is almost debt free.
- Company has delivered good profit growth of 30.8% CAGR over last 5 years
- Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 28.8%
- Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 70.0%
Weaknesses
2- Stock is trading at 18.2 times its book value
- Working capital days have increased from 64.5 days to 99.1 days
Growth Rate
AI Analysis — Bull vs Bear
Cummins India is a high-quality, debt-free compounder with 30% ROE and 31% profit CAGR over 5 years, but the stock trades at 68.8x PE and 19.2x book value after a 79% rally in the last year. Analyst opinion is deeply split with 41% buy and 41% sell ratings, suggesting the valuation already prices in strong execution.
- Debt-free balance sheet provides financial resilience and flexibility for capital allocation in cyclical downturns
- Exceptional ROE consistency — 30% last year, 29% 3-year average, 26% 5-year average — indicates durable competitive advantages and pricing power
- Compounded profit growth of 31% CAGR over 5 years significantly outpaces sales growth of 23%, reflecting operating leverage and margin expansion
- Healthy dividend payout ratio of 70% with 1.13% yield signals shareholder-friendly management and strong cash generation
- TTM sales growth of 17% shows continued momentum in the current fiscal year with no signs of demand slowdown
- 10-year stock CAGR of 22% demonstrates long-term wealth compounding ability through multiple economic cycles
- Market cap of Rs 1,62,869 crore provides institutional liquidity and index inclusion benefits for sustained fund flows
- 3-year profit CAGR of 26% during a period that included post-COVID supply chain disruptions shows operational resilience
- PE ratio of 68.8x is extremely elevated for an industrial company, leaving minimal margin of safety if growth disappoints
- Price-to-book of 19.2x implies the market is pricing in decades of supernormal returns, creating significant downside risk on any earnings miss
- Analyst consensus is deeply divided — 41% sell ratings (9 out of 22 analysts) suggest institutional skepticism at current levels
- Working capital days have deteriorated from 64.5 to 99.1 days, a 54% increase indicating potential cash conversion cycle stress
- Stock has rallied 79% in the last 1 year, making mean reversion a material risk with limited upside from current valuations
- TTM sales growth of 17% does not justify a 68.8x PE multiple — implied PEG ratio exceeds 3x even on profit growth
- 10-year sales CAGR of only 10% suggests the recent 16-17% growth phase may not be structurally sustainable over a full cycle
- Only 18% of analysts rate the stock a Hold, indicating polarized views and potential for sharp price swings on any negative catalyst
This is AI-generated analysis, not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
AI News Digest
- Exports fall 6% YoY Jun 01
Export revenue declined 6% YoY to ₹450 crore in Q4FY26, with Middle East subdued and Europe/Asia-Pacific showing only moderate demand. Management's FY27 export outlook remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainty.
- Stretched valuation at 57x FY27E Jun 01
Stock trades at 57x FY27 earnings per Bloomberg consensus after gaining 70%+ over the past year. Goldman Sachs maintains 'Sell' at ₹3,980 target; Prabhudas Lilladher downgraded to 'Reduce' at ₹5,133.
- Compressor segment cyclical downturn Jun 01
Management indicated the compressor segment business is expected to enter a cyclical downtrend, while industrial revenue guidance for FY27 is flat YoY.
- Supply chain and cost pressures Jun 01
Labour shortages at supplier facilities, rising fuel costs and commodity inflation are emerging headwinds. Previously booked orders face margin pressure with lead times stretching to 3-6 months.
- Stock fell 3.5% post results Jun 01
Despite strong Q4 beat, shares dropped 3.5% on Jun 1 from ₹5,979.50 open to ₹5,689 low, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment and profit-booking after the 12% surge on May 27.
- Data centres drive 48% powergen growth Jun 01
Power generation revenue surged 48% YoY in Q4FY26 with data centres contributing 30-35% of domestic powergen revenue in FY26 and 35% in Q4. India's committed data centre investments since 2019 have crossed $95 billion.
- Q4 EBITDA beats estimates by 18% May 27
Q4FY26 EBITDA of ₹642 crore beat Bloomberg consensus of ₹544 crore by ~₹100 crore. Revenue rose 23% YoY to ₹2,963 crore, beating estimates by 4.6%.
- FY26 profit up 22% to ₹2,330 Cr Jun 03
FY26 standalone net profit rose 22% to ₹2,330 crore on revenue of ₹11,950 crore (up 18% YoY). Gross margins expanded 60 bps YoY to 36.8%.
- Citi raises target to ₹6,700 Jun 01
Citi raised target from ₹5,200 to ₹6,700 (Buy); Jefferies set ₹7,100 target (20.7% upside); HSBC raised to ₹6,500. Citi hiked FY27/FY28 PAT estimates by 8%/14%.
- Distribution business up 21-22% YoY Jun 01
Distribution segment grew 22% YoY in FY26 driven by volume expansion. Structural tailwind emerging from June 2026 as CPCB IV+ engines move beyond standard warranty, creating aftermarket revenue.
- ₹46/share final dividend declared Jun 03
Board recommended final dividend of ₹46 per share (2,300% dividend) with record date July 17, 2026, payable by September 4, 2026.
- 70% utilisation, room to grow Jun 01
Capacity utilisation at 70% provides headroom to grow without significant capex. No major greenfield expansion plans, supporting capital efficiency and return ratios.
- No encumbrance on promoter shares Jun 12
Cummins Inc. declared no encumbrance on shares of Cummins India for FY ended March 2026 under SEBI regulations.
- Bombay HC stays retirement order Jun 12
Bombay HC granted interim stay on orders modifying workmen retirement age to 60 years. Company had challenged the modification.
- ₹25 Cr block trade at ₹5,635 Jun 09
Block trade of ~44,336 shares at ₹5,635/share on NSE totalling ₹24.98 crore, indicating institutional investor activity.
- Investor meetings scheduled Jun 04
Cummins India held investor meetings on June 9-10, 2026 with Motilal Oswal Financial Services and First Sentier Investors (Hong Kong).
- Q4FY26 concall audio uploaded May 30
Audio recording of Q4 and FY26 results conference call held May 29, 2026 uploaded to investor website per SEBI compliance.
TL;DR: Cummins India delivered a standout FY26 with 22% profit growth and a massive Q4 earnings beat driven by data centre demand powering 48% growth in power generation. The structural story around Indian data centre buildouts ($95B committed since 2019) and distribution aftermarket tailwinds is compelling. Key risks are rich valuations at 57x forward earnings, muted exports, and an expected compressor segment downturn. The domestic growth trend is strong and improving, but the stock price already reflects much of the optimism, making further upside dependent on sustained execution.
Quarterly Results
| Mar 2023 | Jun 2023 | Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1,934 | 2,218 | 1,922 | 2,541 | 2,319 | 2,316 | 2,509 | 3,096 | 2,470 | 2,907 | 3,170 | 3,055 | 3,011 |
| Expenses | 1,604 | 1,876 | 1,575 | 1,999 | 1,781 | 1,842 | 2,025 | 2,499 | 1,945 | 2,283 | 2,475 | 2,420 | 2,369 |
| Operating Profit | 330 | 342 | 346 | 543 | 539 | 473 | 484 | 598 | 525 | 624 | 695 | 634 | 642 |
| OPM % | 17% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 21% |
| Other Income | 159 | 155 | 128 | 153 | 186 | 171 | 157 | 168 | 217 | 212 | 181 | 46 | 263 |
| Interest | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Depreciation | 38 | 36 | 38 | 42 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 49 | 46 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 |
| PBT | 444 | 453 | 429 | 647 | 676 | 595 | 594 | 714 | 690 | 785 | 824 | 626 | 852 |
| Tax % | 21% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 20% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% |
| Net Profit | 349 | 354 | 329 | 499 | 539 | 463 | 449 | 558 | 530 | 604 | 622 | 486 | 649 |
| EPS in Rs | 12.59 | 12.76 | 11.87 | 18 | 19.44 | 16.69 | 16.21 | 20.15 | 19.1 | 21.79 | 22.45 | 17.53 | 23.43 |
Profit & Loss
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 4,916 | 4,720 | 5,106 | 5,112 | 5,697 | 5,191 | 4,360 | 6,171 | 7,772 | 9,000 | 10,391 | 12,143 |
| Expenses | 4,101 | 3,945 | 4,302 | 4,374 | 4,828 | 4,598 | 3,757 | 5,288 | 6,524 | 7,231 | 8,311 | 9,548 |
| Operating Profit | 815 | 775 | 805 | 738 | 869 | 593 | 603 | 883 | 1,248 | 1,770 | 2,080 | 2,595 |
| OPM % | 17% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 21% |
| Other Income | 208 | 116 | 141 | 298 | 328 | 356 | 366 | 472 | 502 | 622 | 714 | 702 |
| Interest | 2 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 16 | 12 |
| Depreciation | 86 | 81 | 85 | 94 | 111 | 121 | 127 | 136 | 142 | 159 | 185 | 199 |
| PBT | 935 | 799 | 843 | 927 | 1,069 | 807 | 825 | 1,207 | 1,591 | 2,205 | 2,593 | 3,086 |
| Tax % | 19% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 31% | 13% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 23% |
| Net Profit | 772 | 721 | 736 | 712 | 743 | 706 | 635 | 934 | 1,228 | 1,721 | 2,000 | 2,362 |
| EPS in Rs | 27.85 | 26.02 | 26.56 | 25.68 | 26.79 | 25.45 | 22.91 | 33.68 | 44.31 | 62.07 | 72.15 | 85.2 |
| Div. Payout % | 50% | 54% | 53% | 58% | 63% | 55% | 65% | 55% | 56% | 61% | 71% | 77% |
Balance Sheet
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Reserves | 3,033 | 3,553 | 3,816 | 4,063 | 4,228 | 4,347 | 4,596 | 5,090 | 5,703 | 6,557 | 7,506 | 8,420 |
| Borrowings | 3 | 3 | 252 | 257 | 313 | 512 | 40 | 418 | 376 | 127 | 30 | 37 |
| Other Liabilities | 1,508 | 1,051 | 1,091 | 1,339 | 1,465 | 1,282 | 1,265 | 1,549 | 1,784 | 2,231 | 2,577 | 2,793 |
| Total Liabilities | 4,599 | 4,662 | 5,214 | 5,715 | 6,060 | 6,196 | 5,956 | 7,112 | 7,919 | 8,971 | 10,168 | 11,304 |
| Fixed Assets | 1,307 | 1,291 | 1,502 | 2,021 | 2,015 | 2,270 | 2,189 | 2,209 | 2,226 | 2,302 | 2,364 | 2,404 |
| CWIP | 171 | 519 | 463 | 39 | 159 | 80 | 128 | 61 | 41 | 97 | 85 | 77 |
| Investments | 536 | 489 | 862 | 708 | 468 | 1,038 | 599 | 892 | 1,457 | 1,642 | 1,482 | 2,153 |
| Other Assets | 2,585 | 2,364 | 2,387 | 2,947 | 3,418 | 2,809 | 3,041 | 3,951 | 4,194 | 4,930 | 6,238 | 6,670 |
| Total Assets | 4,599 | 4,662 | 5,214 | 5,715 | 6,060 | 6,196 | 5,956 | 7,112 | 7,919 | 8,971 | 10,168 | 11,304 |
Cash Flow
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating | 589 | 696 | 748 | 632 | 553 | 601 | 789 | 712 | 820 | 1,285 | 1,685 | 1,734 |
| Investing | -146 | -215 | -483 | -134 | 15 | -202 | 25 | -574 | 87 | -248 | -580 | 15 |
| Financing | -444 | -471 | -226 | -470 | -525 | -412 | -873 | -82 | -687 | -1,134 | -1,168 | -1,495 |
| Net Cash Flow | -1 | 10 | 39 | 28 | 43 | -14 | -60 | 56 | 219 | -97 | -63 | 254 |
| Free Cash Flow | 251 | 205 | 516 | 540 | 279 | 364 | 675 | 782 | 665 | 1,003 | 1,455 | 1,487 |
| CFO/OP | 98 | 112 | 116 | 110 | 91 | 129 | 145 | 109 | 94 | 101 | 108 | 91 |
Ratios
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor Days | 73 | 73 | 69 | 96 | 82 | 81 | 91 | 74 | 75 | 85 | 80 | 83 |
| Inventory Days | 89 | 75 | 63 | 61 | 64 | 62 | 75 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 56 | 56 |
| Days Payable | 79 | 69 | 68 | 85 | 83 | 75 | 97 | 89 | 81 | 89 | 87 | 79 |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 83 | 79 | 65 | 71 | 63 | 68 | 69 | 51 | 58 | 56 | 49 | 60 |
| Working Capital Days | 54 | 78 | 49 | 57 | 59 | 40 | 72 | 39 | 36 | 48 | 46 | 99 |
| ROCE % | — | 24% | 22% | 21% | 24% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 27% | 35% | 36% | 40% |
Documents
Frequently Asked Questions about Cummins India Ltd
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Company Information
Cummins India Ltd is a part of the Cummins Inc. Group USA. It designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and alternative fuel engines from 2.8 to 100 liters, diesel and alternative-fueled power generator sets of up to 3000 kW (3750 kVA), as well as related components and technology.[1]